Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s scheduled visit to Washington next week could be overshadowed by a resumption of the US-Iran war , with less importance given to the Israel-Hezbollah front amid slow implementation of a framework deal.
Aoun is expected to meet with his American counterpart Donald Trump at the White House on 21 July. The visit would mark Aoun’s first trip to Washington since becoming president in January last year, and the first visit of a Lebanese president since 2009.
Aoun, a former army general, and the Lebanese government face the mammoth task of exerting a state monopoly on all arms in the country and ending the conflict with Israel.
There is scepticism that Aoun's visit will secure meaningful progress towards an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon . The Israeli political leadership remains adamant about remaining in parts of southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed, while the Iran-backed militant group refuses disarmament and rejects the framework deal.
"There are no expectations – there are facts. We are relying on the American sponsor of this framework, which is making efforts in this regard," an official source, who requested anonymity, told The New Arab .
"It is a process that requires time, and we are seeking to see it implemented as quickly as possible. However, this also depends on the balance of power, the arrangements in place, and how the conditions are enforced," the source added.
"We are working to implement the framework through clear mechanisms in coordination with the United States."
After weeks of direct talks , Israel and Lebanon signed a US-sponsored trilateral framework in late June that would see the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon - without setting a timeframe and conditional on Hezbollah being disarmed and its infrastructure dismantled.
The Lebanese army would then take control of the areas exited by the Israelis and guarantee these zones have been cleared of all militant arms.
Washington will oversee the implementation of the framework, and a coordination committee called the MTC4L would be set up as a channel of communication between the Lebanese and Israeli militaries.
The Lebanese army has refused to work directly with the Israeli military to implement the agreement.
Some analysts are cynical about the framework deal moving forward.
"The only objective of Aoun’s visit is to entice Trump to pressure Israel to withdraw from Lebanon and to demonstrate that Lebanese authorities can be a reliable partner in implementing the framework agreement, but Lebanese officials realistically have little to no leverage," political analyst Joe Macaron told TNA .
He believes Beirut is yet to prove that it can move forward with the framework deal and exert its authority over southern Lebanon.
"Lebanese authorities have not yet proven they can implement the framework agreement, and Israel's domestic politics make a significant withdrawal from Lebanon not possible in the foreseeable future."
What’s on the agenda?
A political source familiar with the matter told Lebanon’s Al Joumhouria newspaper that Aoun’s upcoming visit will be "more than a routine protocol visit or a photo opportunity at the White House," stressing that its significance lies in its timing.
The source added that Aoun's schedule in Washington will be "packed and highly significant," including meetings with influential members of the US Congress involved in Middle East affairs, particularly Lebanon.
The source also said Aoun is due to meet senior officials and researchers from leading US think tanks that advise American and Western institutions on political and security strategy in the Middle East, including former US and regional diplomats.
Discussions are expected to focus on a mechanism to strengthen the Lebanese state’s ability to restore control over security, military, political and economic decision-making through the dismantling of militias and the informal economy – an apparent reference to Hezbollah-linked financial institutions and the cash economy which has flourished in Lebanon since the financial collapse in 2019.
Almodon news site said the visit will be "brief," with Aoun hoping to use it to convey Lebanon’s complaints over Israel’s continued military actions in southern Lebanon and its intransigence.
Washington’s attention shifts to Iran
Macaron says expectations of Aoun’s visit to Washington are relatively low because Trump is now focused on the ongoing fighting with Iran and considers Lebanon a "secondary issue."
The renewed US-Iran conflict has quickly become Washington's primary regional focus, with both sides exchanging strikes over recent days. The conflict threatens to drag the region into another full-scale war.
Tehran insists that a ceasefire in southern Lebanon is a priority in implementing the US-Iran memorandum reached on 17 June; Israel refuses to abide by the US-Iran deal.
Macron says that, given the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, Trump is likely to focus on restraining Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rather than pushing him to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon.
"But Washington is expecting incremental, if not symbolic, steps from Israel," he said, "but it is not clear if Trump is willing to invest enough political capital to push for significant withdrawal before the Israeli elections."
An online meeting that was scheduled to happen on Friday between American, Israeli and Lebanese delegations to discuss implementation has been postponed, with no further details on when the meeting will take place.
Lebanese Army patrols
The two initial 'pilot zones' where the framework deal is expected to be implemented are widely reported to be the villages of Zawtar al-Gharbiya and Froun. While Israeli forces occupy Zawtar al-Gharbiya, there is no permanent Israeli presence inside Froun, although the village has come under repeated Israeli fire.
Since Wednesday, the Lebanese army has conducted patrols and established checkpoints and observation posts in Froun, Ghandouriyeh , Qalaouiyeh, Burj Qalaouiyeh and Kfardounine in Bint Jbeil district, as well as Qaqaiyat al-Jisr in Nabatiyeh district and Srifa in Tyre district.
The deployments suggest the army is expanding its presence not only in the reported pilot areas but also in surrounding villages expected to form part of the broader implementation zone.