On Sunday, two American and two Mexican officials were reportedly killed in a car crash while returning from a counternarcotics operation in the border state of Chihuahua, Mexico. The pair of Americans were revealed to be CIA officers, raising questions as to the extent of the agency’s activities south of the border. Since returning to office, the Trump administration has exerted significant pressure on Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to greenlight U.S. military action against cartels within Mexico. If or when the White House successfully concludes the ongoing Iran War, the fear among foreign policy restrainers is that Trump may launch a forever war close to home.
In and of itself, U.S. support for Mexican counternarcotics in the form of intelligence sharing, training, and providing equipment is uncontroversial and has been openly embraced by Sheinbaum and her predecessors. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and FBI agents have assisted Mexican forces for decades, and U.S. intelligence was key to the recent killing of CJNG kingpin Nemesio “ El Mencho ” Oseguera. In theory, counternarcotics operations are outside the purview of the CIA, which typically supports foreign wars and regime change efforts. But in 2025, the Trump administration designated Mexico’s infamous drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, dramatically increasing agency activity within the country; related designations have served as justification for the extrajudicial killing of more than 170 alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific.
The circumstances of the two CIA officers’ deaths, moreover, are troubling. Mexican law forbids all foreign agents from operating in the country without authorization from the central government. Many within the governing Morena party have accused Chihuahua’s opposition governor, Maru Campos, of illegally consorting with U.S. intelligence — a plausible charge. Accordingly, Sheinbaum has vowed to determine whether Campos and the CIA violated national security laws, offering little indication as to whether the accident itself would be further investigated. Whatever the precise circumstances of the officers’ deaths, there’s a clear incentive for all parties to downplay the incident, Iran-distracted U.S. officials included.
Those who would rather ignore the incident should make no mistake, however: Trump is playing a dangerous game in Mexico. Sunday’s incident showcases the disturbingly realistic possibility that U.S. intelligence officials could eventually fall victim to cartel violence. If or when this occurs, it’s a virtual certainty that hawks in and outside of the administration will lobby for kinetic action south of the border. Prominent Republicans such as Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham have already been salivating at the prospect of cartel wars in Mexico. Ironically, even perceived America First anti-interventionists such as Marjorie Taylor Greene have argued that strikes against cartels would be a “ smarter ” use of military force than war with Iran.
This view is deeply flawed. Compared to the Iran war, bombing Mexico would be less consequential for the global economy. But the adverse effects on Americans would be far worse. Mexico is home to over 1.6 million U.S. citizens, and more than 10 million Americans visit the country each year. While many in MAGA seem indifferent to the killing of foreign civilians, it’s extremely likely that U.S. expats, tourists and dual citizens would be among the unintended casualties of strikes against cartels. Even worse for the White House, cartel wars stand to unravel Trump’s signature achievement of slashing illegal immigration through the southern border. Military strikes would almost certainly produce a torrent of Mexican refugees fleeing American ordnance for the U.S.-Mexico border. Mexico City could likewise cease immigration enforcement operations against non-Mexican migrants and remove visa restrictions on Cuban, Venezuelan and Haitian visitors. Perhaps most concerning of all, our largest trade partner could opt to close the border to bilateral trade between both countries, accounting for around $1 trillion in 2025.
A forever war is, at its core, the pursuit of a nebulous objective against an irregular actor on an open-ended timeline. Tragically, the MAGA fever dream of cartel wars in Mexico fits this description down to the letter. Much like efforts to uproot the Taliban or Hamas, “destroying the cartels” is a nebulous and unrealistic goal for the simple reason that drug traffickers are deeply enmeshed within a domestic population. Organized crime, moreover, is driven by profit as opposed to ideology; takedowns of various cartels or kingpings are unlikely to eliminate markets for illicit services. Since the onset of Mexico’s two-decade drug war in 2006, the country has dismantled around a dozen cartels; killed, arrested and/or extradited hundreds of kingpins; and killed or arrested over 100,000 hitmen . So long as millions of Americans remain committed to poisoning themselves with illicit drugs and Mexican justice continues to suffer high rates of impunity, no amount of bombs will make a meaningful difference in the drug war.
The Trump administration would benefit from better signalling of its own achievements as well as those of its Mexican partners. Fentanyl flows through the southern border have fallen 56% since Trump returned to office, with seizures south of the border rising to a record high, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Sheinbaum and her superstar Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch have also managed the astonishing feat of neutralizing drug lords like El Mencho while containing subsequent outbreaks of cartel retaliation and infighting. Shockingly, independent estimates have found that Mexico’s homicide rate has fallen at least 15% during Sheinbaum’s first year in office — a first for any administration since the start of the drug war. In February, the White House even went as far as to finally take action against arms trafficking to cartels from the U.S. by seizing thousands of guns bound for Mexico.
For both countries’ sakes, MAGA would do well to learn from its failings in Iran and avoid an even worse catastrophe closer to home.