Talks in Cairo over the future of Gaza’s ceasefire have stalled after days of discussions between the Board of Peace's High Representative Nickolay Mladenov and Palestinian officials, heightening concerns that Israel could soon resume large-scale military action .
The meetings were intended to advance a 15-point proposal developed under the Palestinian administrative committee – a body established by the BoP to oversee implementation of the ceasefire. But negotiations appear to have reached an impasse, with disarmament of Hamas emerging as the central sticking point.
Indirect talks between Israel and Palestinian representatives have been ongoing since 14 March, with Israeli conditions relayed through Mladenov. Among them is a key provision echoed in US President Donald Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan and the full disarmament and demilitarisation of Hamas.
Diplomatic sources indicate Mladenov has prioritised disarmament above all other issues, relegating reconstruction of the devastated Gaza Strip to a secondary concern. Palestinian officials have repeatedly rejected this sequencing, arguing that humanitarian relief should not be contingent on the surrender of weapons.
Hamas reaffirmed its refusal in its latest response submitted in Cairo on Saturday, insisting Israel must first meet its obligations under the initial phase of the ceasefire and provide stronger security guarantees.
The breakdown in talks has been accompanied by increasingly explicit warnings from the BoP . According to a document obtained by The Times of Israel , the panel has indicated it will not hold Israel to ceasefire commitments if Hamas refuses to accept the proposed disarmament framework.
Mladenov had previously warned that failure to disarm could trigger renewed conflict. However, the newly reported position goes further, stating that Israel would no longer be expected to halt military operations or ensure the entry of humanitarian aid if Hamas does not comply.
"Failure by Hamas to accept the framework within a reasonable timeframe, as determined by the Board of Peace and after consultation with the parties, shall render such commitments null and void", reads a letter sent by Mladenov and senior US official Aryeh Lightstone to a Palestinian technocratic government official intended to replace Hamas in Gaza.
The stance effectively reframes the original ceasefire agreement. Under Phase 1, Israel was required to halt all military activity – including airstrikes, shelling and assassinations – and allow the entry of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) alongside a new Palestinian administrative body.
Those conditions, however, were never fully implemented. Since the ceasefire was signed on 10 October, more than 800 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes and operations . Israel has also not permitted the deployment of the ISF or the entry of the new governing committee.
The BoP’s revised approach now appears to condition those original Israeli obligations on Hamas agreeing to disarm – a shift that Palestinian officials say undermines the basis of the ceasefire itself.
Israeli media reports suggest the military is already preparing for a renewed offensive, with officials claiming operations would now be less constrained following the resolution of the Israeli captives issue.
The developments come as Mladenov and other BoP officials met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Tuesday. Mladenov described the discussions as "positive and substantive", adding that efforts were ongoing to translate commitments into concrete steps.
"This will require decisions for progress", he said. "We keep moving forward in the interest of a better future for Israelis and Palestinians".
Despite such statements, the collapse of the Cairo talks and the hardening positions on disarmament have left the ceasefire increasingly fragile – and the prospect of renewed war looming.