The Sudanese city of El Obeid is coming under increasingly intense drone attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), raising fears it could face the same prolonged siege and devastation seen in El Fasher.
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) warned that the city has been subject to escalating drone strikes targeting fuel depots and water stations, as well as aid trucks coming into the city, leading to shortages.
Speaking to The New Arab , the IRC detailed the precarity of the situation in El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan province.
The aid group said that the city has an estimated population of 600,000, including an estimated 100,000 internally displaced persons, and that current fuel and water deliveries do not meet the people's needs .
In particular, drone strikes have been targeting large trucks on the main road connecting El Obeid to the rest of Sudan, via the towns of Al Rahad, Um Raqaba, Tendelti, and Kosti.
"Any big truck (including buses) is a possible target for the drone attacks, but so far incidents reported targeted big fuel trucks, humanitarian aid trucks (between Kosti and Obeid additionally, fuel trucks inside Obeid were also targeted," the IRC said.
The strikes have seen fuel deliveries into El Obeid travel via small jerry cans rather than large trucks, though this has hampered fuel supplies in the city.
The IRC added that electricity outages are disabling water points and pumps and that trucked water is arriving from Wad al Baqa, between 9 and 10 kilometres south of El Obeid, to supply the city.
"It doesn't cover the city's needs and people stand in long queues to fetch the water from the tanker trucks that park in certain locations within El Obeid," the IRC said, adding "some families are now attempting to dig wells at school yards to manually fetch water."
IRC's country director for Sudan, Richard Data, said in a statement on Monday: "What is happening in El Obeid today could become a repeat of the horrors we saw in El Fasher where civilians became targets."
The RSF capture of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur that had been under an 18-month siege, led to thousands of civilians being killed, and has been described as bearing the hallmarks of genocide by UN officials.
Amnesty International said in a report released on Wednesday that during the RSF's campaign to take El Fasher , crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing had been perpetrated by the group.
According to the IRC, there is currently no plan for if there is a large-scale displacement out of the city, with IDPs expected to reach neighbouring White Nile state, as well as Jazera, Gadared, and Kassala. Drone strikes unable to break military stalemate Despite the worsening humanitarian situation, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) organisation told The New Arab that, although drone strikes have reached their highest level since the war began, they have so far failed to break the military stalemate in the city.
"June 2026 marked a record intensity in drone warfare around El Obeid, in Sheikan locality, with ACLED recording 27 events involving drone strikes - the highest monthly total since the beginning of the conflict," Nohad Eltayeb, Senior Research Assistant at ACLED, said.
"To mitigate the impact of the RSF's drone campaign against military and civilian infrastructure, the SAF has focused on bolstering its defences by reinforcing positions with allied groups, such as the Sudan Shield Forces," Eltayeb added.
According to Eltayeb, neither side has a military advantage to break the ongoing deadlock, with an RSF territorial takeover of the city unlikely due to positions held around the city being reinforced by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), as well as the continued access of the eastward road out of the city despite ongoing drone strikes. Attention is likely to remain focused on El Obeid as the RSF seeks to regain momentum in the war following defections and internal instability , after consolidating its control over Darfur with the capture of El Fasher
"The current situation indicates that the conflict will remain characterised by shifting localities rather than a change in overall control, with civilians likely to endure a significant and prolonged impact of clashes and drone strikes on the densely populated city of El Obeid."