In a move that could turn the regional conflagration ignited by the Iran war into an inferno, the Houthis in Yemen have entered the conflict by resuming missile and drone attacks against Israel and threatening to close the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Early on Saturday, the Iran-backed group announced they had launched a missile at Israel , marking their first attack since the ceasefire that ended the war in Gaza last October.
Less than 24 hours later, the group’s official spokesperson, Yahya Saree, announced that the group had launched another barrage of cruise missiles and drones.
The Houthis, who rule over northern Yemen, possess a sizable strategic arsenal of homemade armed drones, anti-ship, and ballistic missiles, many of them based on Iranian designs and manufactured locally.
It built up and used much of this arsenal during its long conflict against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from 2015 to 2022. Shortly after Israel launched its war on the Gaza Strip in October 2023, the group fired repeated long-range drones and missiles in solidarity with Hamas and targeted commercial shipping crossing the Red Sea.
The group also fought the US Navy, most recently in March-April 2025, in an operation the US military codenamed Rough Rider .
In a televised statement mere days before Saturday’s attack, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi declared his movement would “repay loyalty with loyalty” to Iran in the face of the assault.
The leader and other Houthi officials have repeatedly said the group’s “fingers are on the trigger” since the US-Israeli war started on 28 February.
Alex Almeida, a security analyst at the political risk consultancy Horizon Engage who conducted on-the-ground fieldwork embedded with UAE and Yemeni forces in Yemen, believes the Houthis may have hesitated to take action until now out of self-preservation .
The group may well have concluded that preserving Yemen as a “final redoubt for the Islamic Revolution” in case Iran’s regime collapses was more important than entering a war that could expose them to attacks from multiple sides.
“They see themselves as an ally and partner of Iran, not a wholly owned subsidiary of the Iranian regime,” Almeida told The New Arab . “The Houthis’ fear of a strong Saudi response, including the reengagement of Saudi airpower in Yemen, is probably also a factor.”
Mohammed Al-Basha, founder of the US-based Risk Advisory Basha Report, believes the Houthis' pause until now reflected “a mix of political, economic, and military factors”.
One such factor shaping decision-making in the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen is economic pressure .
“There is a growing incentive to avoid actions that could disrupt ongoing talks with Saudi Arabia,” Al-Basha told TNA. “The Houthis see progress in negotiations tied to the UN roadmap, especially around compensation, reparations, and financial support. Escalation now could put those gains at risk.”
The Houthis fought a gruelling seven-year war with the Saudis beginning in March 2015 that lasted until 30 March 2022, when a ceasefire halted hostilities. That ceasefire has held until the present day.
Additionally, the balance of power on the ground in Yemen has shifted in recent years.
“With the UAE no longer playing a direct role, Saudi Arabia has become the dominant external actor in Yemen,” Al-Basha said. “Saudi-backed forces across the east, west, and south are showing signs of greater coordination,” he added.
“The Houthis assess that any attack on Saudi Arabia could trigger a more unified and forceful response, unlike earlier periods marked by divisions between Saudi and Emirati priorities.”
Since the Houthis began launching long-range missiles and drones at Israel following the start of the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, Israel has executed long-range airstrikes against vital Houthi-controlled infrastructure beginning in July 2024.
These strikes have repeatedly targeted and caused widespread destruction to the critical Hodeidah port on the Red Sea coast and Sanaa International Airport in the eponymous Houthi-controlled Yemeni capital city.
Furthermore, an Israeli air attack on 28 August 2025 assassinated several Houthi ministers. Following Saturday’s strike, Israel has warned the group that it will “pay the price” for its action.
Al-Basha noted that Israel’s destructive air raids have directly impacted the Houthi leadership.
“These strikes targeted senior political officials, members of the Houthi family, and resulted in the death of their forces’ General Chief of Staff Mohamed al-Gomari,” he said. “His presence is now visible across Sanaa through public displays and messaging, underscoring the scale of the loss and its effect on the movement.”
Since Saturday, there have been renewed fears that the Houthis will once again target Red Sea shipping or even close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Doing the latter in tandem with Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have economic ramifications worldwide.
“The most likely Houthi response if the US moves to forcibly reopen Hormuz or take Kharg Island, would be to throttle alternative export routes by striking at the terminus of the Saudi East-West pipeline at Yanbu and closing the Bab al-Mandeb to international shipping,” Horizon Engage’s Almeida said.
Aside from closing the Bab el-Mandeb, a similarly vulnerable and critical chokepoint like the narrow Strait of Hormuz , the Houthis have US military targets within range of their strategic stockpile.
“Strikes on Yanbu, Jeddah, and airbases in western Saudi Arabia that the Saudis have made available to the US would also be a way for the Houthis to keep that second US carrier group pinned down in the Red Sea covering western Saudi Arabia,” Almeida said.
“If the US tries to run a carrier strike group through the Bab el-Mandeb to reinforce the carrier already in the Arabian Sea, it’s quite likely the Houthis would do their best to hit that carrier as it passes through their anti-ship missile gauntlet,” he added.
“Since Operation Rough Rider in 2025, the US Navy has been very reluctant to risk its carriers within range of land-based anti-ship missiles, so that’s a very credible threat.”
Speaking to TNA three days before Saturday’s attacks, Al-Basha warned that, despite the Houthis' previous restraint, the situation remained “fluid,” and that if the group judged that its allies Hezbollah and Iran required support, it would resume operations. It did so on Saturday.
Furthermore, in his estimation, renewed Houthi military activity will most likely remain focused on the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. Al-Basha expects the group to avoid direct escalation with neighbouring Saudi Arabia, at least for now. Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs Follow him on X: @pauliddon Edited by Charlie Hoyle