Israel’s escalating attacks in Lebanon risks collapsing a fragile US‑Iran agreement that appears closer than ever, turning Lebanon once again into a key testing ground for whether regional deals can hold.
In recent days, Donald Trump has sent conflicting messages about whether any progress has been made on the emerging deal with Iran, even as mediators suggest they are near to reaching an understanding.
Reports indicate that sticking points remain, with senior officials involved in the indirect talks hinting over the weekend that negotiations were progressing but that a deal was not “imminent”.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar has meanwhile flown to New York for a two‑day visit, where he is expected to attend a UN Security Council debate on international peace and security – another sign that diplomatic machinery is whirring in the background.
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said on Sunday night that he welcomed a deal between Iran and the US, adding that he hoped any agreement would explicitly include Lebanon.
Yet as the diplomatic track inches forward, Israel appears to be moving in the opposite direction.
On Monday evening, a senior US official hinted in an interview with Israel’s Channel 12 that the Trump administration would support expanding the Israeli offensive in Lebanon, even as it remains in talks with Iran.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel would escalate its strikes against Hezbollah, saying in a video statement, “We are at war with Hezbollah,” and claiming that Israeli forces had killed more than 600 Hezbollah fighters in recent weeks.
“But we are not removing our foot from the pedal,” he added. “On the contrary, I said to press on the pedal even more.”
Within Israel’s security establishment, there is growing frustration with the limits agreed with Washington.
Army chief of staff Eyal Zamir has reportedly been critical of constraints imposed by American demands, including understandings not to operate north of the so‑called yellow line in Lebanon. In a small security meeting this week, he is said to have argued that “buildings in Beirut must be attacked in response to the threat of Hezbollah’s explosive‑laden drones”.
Israeli media have also reported on conversations between Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz about expanding operations in Lebanon, suggesting that parts of the leadership are preparing the public for a broader campaign. Preparations on the ground point to escalation On Tuesday morning, the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that the army had begun calling up reserve forces to expand operations beyond the so called "yellow line" in south Lebanon – signaling more escalation.
Schools in northern Israel have been closed from Tuesday until further notice, while gatherings were capped at 50 people in open areas and 200 indoors.
The head of the Home Front Command, Maj Gen Shai Klepper, visited the north earlier in the week to meet emergency officials, in a further indication that Israel is bracing for heavier exchanges with Hezbollah.
In Beirut, residents of the southern suburbs have again begun fleeing their neighbourhoods, fearing a renewed Israeli assault , after deadly strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreed on 16 April.
Fourteen people were killed in Israeli strikes across southern and eastern Lebanon over the past day, bringing Lebanon’s death toll to more than 3,180 people since the latest assault began. Iran’s dilemma between regional deal or regional war For Tehran, the looming question is whether it can afford to accept a deal while Israel bombs one of its closest allies.
If Israel is able to expand its offensive in Lebanon with a green light from Trump, Iran would “face a painful dilemma,” argues analyst Trita Parsi.
“Tehran would almost certainly pressure Trump to intervene and might even threaten to abandon the agreement altogether. But if Washington failed to act, would Iran truly sacrifice sanctions relief , economic recovery, and an end to open warfare merely to register its objections?” Parsi said in a post on X.
Sanctions relief remains one of Tehran’s central objectives from the negotiations.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency revealed on Tuesday details of a senior delegation’s visit to Qatar focused on releasing frozen Iranian assets under a 14‑article memorandum of understanding with the US.
According to the reported text, 24 billion dollars in frozen funds are to be released over a 60‑day negotiation period, with Iran insisting that half be made available immediately after the memorandum is announced.
Walking away from the deal to side with Lebanon, Parsi argues, could lead Tehran to “end up with neither an agreement nor a ceasefire in Lebanon".
Against this backdrop, clashes between the US and Iran continue.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on Tuesday it had “downed” a US MQ‑9 Reaper drone in Iranian airspace, while overnight the US military said it struck rocket‑launch sites in southern Iran in “defensive actions”.