President Donald Trump abruptly paused “Project Freedom” — a US military operation to escort ships through the Iranian-blockaded Strait of Hormuz — roughly 36 hours after it began. According to NBC News , the reversal came after significant backlash from key Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia. Trump announced the operation via social media on Sunday, surprising Gulf partners. In response, Saudi Arabia suspended US access to Prince Sultan Airbase and Saudi airspace, which are critical for providing air cover (fighters, tankers, and defensive umbrella) to ships transiting the strait. A phone call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to resolve the dispute. Other allies (e.g., Qatar, Oman) were also caught off guard, with coordination occurring only after the public announcement.
Now here is the kicker:
In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.
A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.
This means that previous plans for a renewed attack on Iran will not happen this week. However, the disinformation put out by the White House made someone a lot of money. The Kobeissi Letter on X has the story:
According to our analysis, ~$920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a “14-point” deal to end the war. At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news. This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET. At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is “close” to a “memorandum of understanding” to end the Iran War. By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million. Minutes later, Iran launched the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” and oil prices surged +8%.
Iran’s leader of Iran’s legislative body, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reacted to the Axios story that claimed a deal was at hand: The operation “Trust me, guys” has failed; now they have returned to their usual practice of spreading fake news via Axios.
Hopes that Donald Trump was serious about finding a negotiated end to the war with Iran have been obliterated. The Trump team, speaking to the Wall Street Journal, are busy erecting a new meme to justify renewing the attack on Iran. Senior US officials told the WSJ Editorial Board the US demands for an Iran deal: • 20-year enrichment ban • Hand over all enriched material • Attestation it doesn’t seek nuclear weapon • Dismantle Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan • Ban on underground nuclear work • On-demand inspections/penalties for violations
Iran will not, under any circumstances, accept these demands. Trump will likely proclaim that he made Iran a generous offer but they refused it because they are intent on building a nuclear weapon. Sources in the Persian Gulf have been told that the attack originally planned for 7 May is pushed back until the week of 10 May.
I spoke with Mario today about the mixed signals coming from the Trump White House: I also spoke Wednesday evening to Pascal Lottaz who hosts Neutrality Studies : --- I thank you for your invaluable support by taking time to read or comment. I do not charge a subscription fee nor do I accept advertising. I want the content to be accessible to everyone interested in the issues I am discussing. However, if you wish to make a donation, please see this link .