Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are eroding state institutions in a bid to tighten their grip on power, especially after Kataeb Hezbollah hinted at a role in Saturday's dramatic attack on the National Intelligence Service in central Baghdad.
Iraq's already fragile political order is being pushed to the brink as pro-Iranian militias tighten their hold over security and political institutions. The recent assault on the National Intelligence Service has sent fresh shockwaves through the country, deepening fears that the state itself is unravelling.
Authorities are investigating Saturday's assault on the agency's headquarters, which killed an intelligence officer and disrupted communications systems. Iraqi security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated to Kataeb Hezbollah, a powerful Iran-aligned faction, as the main suspect.
The group appeared to partially claim responsibility in a statement late Sunday, while denying it saw "any benefit" in targeting the agency. Kataeb Hezbollah accused large segments of Iraq's intelligence service of links to US, Israeli and regional agencies—a narrative often used by militia factions to justify the existence of parallel security structures.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, who visited the site Sunday, condemned the attack as a "shameful terrorist act" and vowed a full investigation, pledging zero tolerance for assaults on state institutions.
Yet analysts warn that this incident reveals a more profound crisis: Iran-aligned armed factions are now seizing the reins of decisions of war and peace, blurring the boundaries between government authority and paramilitary might.
These groups, many now officially part of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, have woven themselves into the fabric of Iraq's political system, turning their battlefield power into parliamentary clout and a firm grip on state resources.
At the same time, they keep testing the government's resolve with armed actions and relentless security pressure, steadily chipping away at Baghdad's efforts to hold the sole reins over the use of force.
Recent escalations, from strikes on foreign-linked targets to assaults on Iraqi security institutions, suggest a calculated strategy: harnessing chaos to seize greater sway over the country’s decision-making, analysts say.
In its latest statement, Kataeb Hezbollah reiterated opposition to any US military presence in Iraq, extended a five-day deadline linked to earlier threats and warned that the conflict would continue until its conditions were met. The group also declared that no new government would be formed unless it emerged under the framework of the "Islamic resistance," signalling an attempt to shape Iraq's political future directly.
Observers warn that this mix of fiery rhetoric, direct attacks, and mounting political pressure signals a drive by hardline factions not just to destabilise the state, but to seize control over Iraq's most fundamental decisions—peace, war, and governance.
Separately, Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Iran-linked Badr Organisation, has called for mass mobilisation among Iraqi youth, citing regional tensions—a move analysts say could further entrench militia influence during a period of heightened instability.
Iraq's National Political Council, representing Sunni political parties, on Monday expressed support for state efforts to maintain security and stability. The council called for stronger, constitution-based measures to reinforce state authority and ensure that only official institutions possess weapons.
It urged the prime minister and Commander-in-Chief Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani to take urgent and decisive action against what it described as "uncontrolled armed groups," citing their direct threat to security and public order after recent attacks on security, diplomatic, and official sites in Baghdad, other provinces, and the Kurdistan Region.
The council also raised concerns about the lack of Sunni representation in Iraq's security leadership, noting their absence from recent high-level security meetings. It warned that threats by armed groups against Sunni and Kurdish officers in the National Intelligence Service represent a serious escalation aimed at undermining state institutions and national cohesion. The council called for legal action under counterterrorism laws against those responsible and urged the restoration of balanced representation in security institutions to strengthen national unity and state credibility.