As talks for a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end hostilities between Iran and the United States remain stalled, sporadic clashes persist in the Persian Gulf.
Concurrently, Israel's destructive campaigns in Lebanon and a potential impasse in Tehran-Washington negotiations over unfreezing Iranian assets and nuclear compliance have fuelled speculation of a major escalation.
As tensions soared, Iran and its allies announced their intentions to completely block the Strait of Hormuz , while also activating other fronts, namely, the Bab al-Mandab.
Standing as one of the most vital arteries for global trade and energy, closing this Red Sea waterway could trigger a massive shock to global supply chains and send energy prices soaring. Where is it, and why does it matter? The waterway forms the maritime border between three countries: Yemen on the eastern and northeastern shores, on the Arabian Peninsula, and Djibouti and Eritrea on the western and southwestern shores, in the Horn of Africa.
By connecting the southern Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and subsequently the Indian Ocean, this maritime corridor dramatically shortens the transit route between Europe and Asia, eliminating the need to circumnavigate the African continent.
The strait's physical dimensions are the primary source of its vulnerability. At its narrowest point , the width of the strait shrinks to just 29 km (18 miles).
"The primary geographic importance of the Bab al-Mandab Strait is its role as a major global choke point, as it connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean," Nader Entessar, professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Alabama, explained to The New Arab .
"In the context of the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, Bab al-Mandab's significance has been amplified into a principal front that directly affects international trade and energy supplies," he added.
Beyond energy, Entessar pointed out that "trade through Bab al-Mandab heavily dictates the flow of many commodities and fibre-optic communications between Europe and Asia".
Before the cascading conflicts - beginning with the US-Houthi war and escalating into direct military confrontations involving Iran, Israel, and the United States - the Red Sea was the undisputed artery of global commerce.
In 2023, according to UNCTAD and maritime monitors, about 15 percent of global trade volume and 20 to 22 percent of global container traffic passed through these waters.
Furthermore, during that pre-war baseline, the strait facilitated the daily transit of roughly 12 percent of total seaborne traded oil and 8 percent of global LNG, according to US Energy Information Administration data . Can Iran actually close it? Unlike the Strait of Hormuz, Iran does not physically border the Bab al-Mandab. Furthermore, Iran's conventional naval capabilities are not comparable to those of the US Navy.
However, Tehran can still severely disrupt the passage of commercial vessels by elevating the risk of transit to unacceptable levels.
"Iran does not have a maritime boundary or a large enough naval capability that would allow it to directly control Bab al-Mandab," Entessar noted.
However, he pointed out that Tehran "does have the means to leverage the capabilities of its ally, the Houthis in Yemen, to further militarise and threaten this narrow strait if it chooses to do so, especially in view of Washington's continuing war against Tehran". What happens if the strait is blocked? If the strait becomes impassable, ships on the Asia-Europe and Asia-North Atlantic trade lanes are forced into a massive detour around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
According to the World Bank , this rerouting increases travel distances by 48 percent for cargo ships and 38 percent for tankers compared to pre-crisis baselines. Consequently, travel times can surge by up to 45 percent for cargo vessels.
The impact goes far beyond shipping delays, acting as a structural shock to the global economy. Farzin Zandi, a political science researcher at the University of Kansas, described a potential disruption as a "combined energy-trade-supply chain shock" with extensive consequences.
"Any disruption in it leads to increased maritime shipping costs, the extension of navigation routes... and higher insurance risks," Zandi said.
"At the energy level, such disruption, by putting pressure on short-term oil and LNG supply, leads to an increase in global energy prices and the formation of a 'risk premium' in oil markets; a phenomenon that is recognised as one of the main drivers of macroeconomic volatility and global inflation," Zandi explained.
He warned that "consequently, the increase in energy and transportation costs spills over into global value chains and, through disruption of intermediate goods flows, affects industrial production and global trade".
The regional implications are equally devastating. "At the regional level, Horn of Africa countries and Yemen face more severe pressures, including reduced access to essential imports, increased food insecurity, and damage to transit revenues," Zandi noted.
“Economies dependent on maritime routes such as Egypt are also indirectly affected by reduced maritime traffic and related impacts on the Suez Canal."
For Persian Gulf nations, the strait has increasingly served as a crucial alternative route. "With the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, some regional oil-producing countries are increasingly eyeing Bab al-Mandab as an escape valve to export their oil," Entessar explained.
"This is especially true for Saudi Arabia, which has been expanding its reliance on its Red Sea pipeline and ports."
However, closing this escape valve would be catastrophic. "Saudi Arabia, which, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has become dependent on energy exports via the Bab al-Mandab Strait, will in effect be placed under economic siege," Zandi added.
"This situation, in addition to increasing tensions among Persian Gulf countries, will also confront the economic conditions of these countries and the region with deeper challenges." The 'non-linear' threat and US policy If both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab face simultaneous disruptions, the economic fallout would multiply.
"If these two chokepoints are simultaneously disrupted, the economic effects are not merely additive, but non-linear," Zandi explained, warning of "sharp increases in oil and LNG prices, spikes in insurance and shipping costs, disruptions in global supply chains, and heightened inflationary pressure in energy-importing economies".
This dual-chokepoint crisis directly threatens Washington's interests.
"For the United States, such a compound shock can generate three types of pressure: first, domestic inflationary pressure through higher energy and transportation prices, which directly affects government economic policy; second, an increased risk of global recession due to disruptions in trade and production; and third, heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, directly linked to the energy security of U.S. allies (particularly Europe and East Asia)," Zandi detailed.
"Together, these factors can increase the cost of inaction in Washington’s calculations and strengthen incentives for deterrence measures, naval escort operations, or crisis management," he added.
However, a lasting resolution requires a fundamental shift in strategy.
Zandi emphasised that stability remains out of reach, "unless the United States, as it entered the war without any clear strategy, targeting, or justification, exits the war in the same manner, brings this conflict to an end, and frees itself, its allies, and other countries from the situation that has emerged". Ariya Farahmand is an Iranian journalist with over a decade of experience in foreign policy, diplomacy, and environmental issues This story was produced in collaboration with Egab Edited by Charlie Hoyle