For nearly 20 years, soybean traders have been honouring a pledge not to source from areas subject to deforestation in the Amazon. That agreement, known as the soy moratorium, is currently hollowing out. Experts fear deforestation could rise by a third over the next 20 years as a result.
In early January, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove), which represents the main grain trading companies, announced its withdrawal from the pledge.
This followed a recent legal challenge to the moratorium, which was submitted to Brazil’s competition regulator, and the passing of local legislation that removed tax breaks for companies signed up to it. Both issues have reached the supreme court, which referred them to its mediation body on 19 March.
Abiove’s withdrawal significantly weakens the soy moratorium.
The private sector pact has been considered one of the most successful initiatives in combating deforestation in the biome. Studies have already warned of the consequences that its weakening could have. A projection shared with Dialogue Earth by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute ( Ipam ), as well as another published by The Nature Conservancy in January, foresee substantial increases in deforestation as a result.
Another recent study finds more than 13 million hectares of the Amazon would be at risk – an area roughly three times the size of Rio de Janeiro.
[The soy pact shows] it’s possible to grow Brazilian agriculture without deforestation João Pedro Carvalho, representative of Brazil’s attorney general The pact’s importance was underlined at the supreme court hearing on 19 March by João Pedro Carvalho, a representative of Brazil’s attorney general. Carvalho said the soy moratorium shows “it’s possible to grow Brazilian agriculture without deforestation”.
Ana Clis Ferreira represents the Zero Deforestation Front (DZ), a Greenpeace Brazil group that acts as an observer to the pact. In a statement sent to Dialogue Earth, she said its end would compromise Brazil’s climate commitments. Other organisations said it could affect the country’s environmental reputation on the international market.
Several of Europe’s leading supermarkets – including Tesco, Lidl and Aldi – said they were “deeply disappointed” by the decision. They have also indicated they would continue to avoid products linked to Amazonian deforestation.
Abiove’s withdrawal from the soy moratorium has complicated timing, due to the EU-Mercosur trade deal . This multinational agreement will ease trading barriers between much of South America and the European Union when it comes into provisional force on 1 May. Exports of Brazilian soybeans to China – the main destination for the commodity – are also set to decline.
The soy pact has also garnered criticism from the agricultural industry. Aprosoja and Famato, two associations that represent Brazilian farmers, say the moratorium imposes barriers to production expansion, and limits the ability of the state to define its own rules to combat deforestation in the Amazon.
Abiove tells Dialogue Earth it will continue to meet “the rigorous demands of global markets”.
Two decades of moratorium
The soy moratorium was introduced in 2006. According to a study published in Science, nearly 30% of Brazilian soy expansion between 2004 and 2006 occurred by deforesting the Amazon. The moratorium was created by the industry and various environmental NGOs in response. Under the pact, companies committed not to purchase or finance soybeans produced in deforested areas. They were given until July 2008 to become compliant, a milestone designed to ensure transition and alignment with environmental legislation.
The moratorium brought together exporters and processors represented by Abiove. Brazil’s Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office (MPF) provided monitoring, with support from environmental organisations. Implementation was based on annual satellite monitoring and public reports.
According to Greenpeace, between 2009 and 2022 deforestation fell by 69% in the monitored areas, despite the area planted with soybeans growing by 344%. Today, only 3.4% of production in the Amazon falls outside the rules of the soy moratorium. Recommended The Coordination of Indigenous Organisations of the Brazilian Amazon ( COIAB ) says the moratorium helped to contain land conflicts by reducing the economic incentive to plant in newly deforested areas. COIAB warns its end could aggravate “human rights violations”.
Despite these successes, the moratorium has its critics – even among environmental groups. Luciana Gatti is a senior researcher at Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research ( INPE ), which is the main government body monitoring deforestation via satellite. She says the moratorium was never fully complied with, and small-scale deforestation continued.
Gatti says the moratorium changed how deforestation happens, rather than stopping it entirely: by curbing soy-driven clearing in the Amazon, it encouraged land to be cleared for cattle ranching, which was later converted for soy cultivation. She also notes the agreement only covers the Amazon. Soy-related deforestation has continued in other regions, especially the Cerrado , a tropical savannah in central and north-eastern Brazil.
For their part, producers have argued the soy moratorium is anti-competitive and harms small- and medium-sized companies. In a complaint to the Administrative Council for Economic Defence (CADE; Brazil’s antitrust authority), the National Confederation of Agribusiness ( CNA ) argued that the moratorium had “harmful effects” on the market and consumers. CADE determined it should be suspended. That ruling has been postponed, however, pending the supreme court’s decision.
Meanwhile, the regional legislation in the state of Mato Grosso that removed tax benefits for companies in the pact is currently being challenged in the supreme court. Carvalho says this raised “the possibility of a member state using its power to tax, in order to punish those who have chosen to protect the Amazon rainforest to a greater extent, and reward those who do not”. A giant anteater crosses a soy field near an Indigenous village in Mato Grosso state, Brazil. Indigenous groups in the Amazon say the moratorium has helped to curb land conflicts and the expansion of plantations in deforested areas (Image: Flávia Milhorance / Dialogue Earth) The future of exports
Even if the moratorium ends, Brazilian producers could still find themselves bound by the demands of their customers.
Several British supermarkets have already indicated they will continue to source deforestation-free soy products only, while exports will continue to be subject to European Union anti-deforestation laws. The European Union is the second biggest market for Brazilian soybeans, and the EU-Mercosur agreement could lead to an increase in these exports. As such, there are fears that ending the moratorium could damage the reputation of Brazilian soybeans and hinder export growth.
Farmers’ groups including Aprosoja have said the EU-Mercosur trade deal could simply reproduce the environmental barriers imposed by the moratorium.
As for China, its purchases of Brazilian soy in 2025 exceeded 85 million tonnes. This was the highest volume in a decade, as the country’s tariff war with the US prompted China to turn to Brazilian imports. With the easing of trade tensions since then, Beijing has expanded its purchases from the US market. This has been detrimental for Brazilian grain – China is expected to buy about 10 million tonnes less in 2026.
“China wants to be less dependent on the Brazilian market, which it considers high risk,” says Niklas Weins, an international studies professor at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.
Weins explains that, although China does not impose formal environmental requirements as strictly as the European Union, it is mindful of the reputational risk associated with the origin of soybeans. He adds: “China understands that climate change poses a risk to soybean production and, consequently, to its food security.” Last year, Brazilian soybean exports exceeded 108 million tonnes, the highest volume of the decade. Sales were driven by China, which prioritised Brazilian soybeans amid its trade war with the US (Image: CNA Brasil / Flickr , CC BY NC SA ) Soybeans after the moratorium
The weakening of the moratorium has led civil society organisations to demand guarantees from the market. “Companies that claim to maintain zero deforestation commitments must explain how these commitments will be met without the moratorium,” says Greenpeace’s Ferreira.
Brazil’s environment and climate change ministry tells Dialogue Earth that public policies to combat deforestation “will not be weakened”.
Other programmes exist, such as Agro Brasil + Sustentável (More Sustainable Agro Brazil), which seeks to create a national standard for monitoring, tracking and validating environmental practices in agricultural production. It also wants to incorporate environmental criteria into the granting of rural credit.
Some experts predict official “certifications” could gain popularity if the moratorium ends. “Although they are more expensive and bureaucratic, they are more comfortable legally for buyers,” says Ronaldo Fernandes, a market analyst at the Brazilian consulting firm Royal Rural. “They transfer the responsibility that would otherwise fall on the importer to the certifier.”
But for Lisandro Inakake, public policy manager at the Brazilian sustainability certifier Imaflora, replacing the soy moratorium will not be easy: “It is a simple, efficient and low-cost system. Building a similar mechanism is almost impossible.”
The post Could end of soy pact lead to Amazon deforestation surge? appeared first on Dialogue Earth .