There has been a dramatic and noticeable shift in Donald Trump’s rhetoric and social media posts regarding Iran since Pepe and I received the report of Iran’s threat to do a demonstration detonation of a nuclear warhead if the US does not cease its attacks on Iran. Coincidence? I don’t think so. Iran is still willing to negotiate a peaceful end to the war with the US and Israel but is insisting that the US end its blockade, stop its attacks on Iranian vessels, and halt the Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
In the latest news we received from the Pakistani source, Pakistani officials are expressing optimism that they will be able to broker a deal between the US and Iran that will culminate in a meeting between Donald Trump and Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, in Islamabad, Pakistan within the next 40 days. Here’s the raw intelligence:
Trump’s inner circle — including Trump himself — and the Iranian leadership have reached a deal to end the war in the Persian Gulf. Pakistan, with China’s full weight behind the curtain and a direct personal endorsement from Putin, brokered it. The announcement is expected within days. Hostilities end immediately.
Trump travels to Islamabad. Signs the Islamabad Accord with the Iranian President on Pakistani soil.
Please remember that I am reporting what the Pakistani source is saying… I am not claiming that I agree. That said, I am confident that the source sincerely believes that Pakistan will succeed in brokering a deal with the US and Iran. I am less sanguine. The specifics of the deal reveal some major potential obstacles. The biggest stumbling block is that the US is supposed to get Israel to end its attacks in Lebanon and withdraw its forces. Second, Iran must convince Hezbollah to end its military operations. I have strong doubts that either side will accomplish those objectives.
Under the proposed agreement the US will lift its blockade and stop attacks on Iranian maritime targets around the Strait of Hormuz and in the Persian Gulf. Iran will continue to collect fees for ships wanting to pass thru the Strait of Hormuz but will postpone receipt of frozen funds until a nuclear agreement is reached that Trump can present to the world as proof that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon and will not seek to deploy one.
I question the wisdom of Iran signing an accord with the US because it is not legally binding. This would be worse than signing the JCPOA, which Trump abruptly tore up leaving Iran in the lurch. The optimal result would be a binding treaty that would require ratification by the US Senate. I don’t see that happening.
Regardless of whether the US and Iran sign an accord in the next forty days, the economic damage to the world economy will not be quickly repaired. The best case is that the Pakistani source is right — Trump and Pezeshkian sign an accord — and the healing process can begin, perhaps as early as July 1st. The worst case is that this war with Iran will continue through the summer, perhaps longer, and that worsening global economic conditions will increase pressure on the US to make a deal with Tehran. Today was another monster podcast day… Eight different videos. The first one is a 12-minute Counter Current piece that evaluates the Pakistani intel about Iran’s intent to go nuclear if the US does not stop its attacks: Nate of the Canadian Prepper channel hosted me again… His readers hate me: Danny Haiphong hosted Colonel Wilkerson and me for a discussion about Iran and Ukraine: Pepe and I did another Power Shift brief with Zulfiqar Ali: If it is Thursday afternoon at 3 pm, I’m on with brother Garland Nixon: I had an excellent conversation wtih Pyotr Kurzin about Iran, Israel and the US: I know that some people find Mario Nawfal irritating, but I genuinely like the kid. He’s a hard worker, asks good questions and is not afraid to entertain different perspectives… plus he laughs at my jokes: Last, but not least, Sulaiman Ahmed and I discuss whether Iran has the bomb: --- I thank you for your invaluable support by taking time to read or comment. I do not charge a subscription fee nor do I accept advertising. I want the content to be accessible to everyone interested in the issues I am discussing. However, if you wish to make a donation, please see this link .