US President Donald Trump met with his national security team on Monday, raising fears that he could re-launch attacks on Iran and resume the joint US-Israeli war on the country.
The meeting came amid weeks of deadlock between Washington and Tehran over the path to negotiations, with still no agreement made between the two sides. The New Arab takes a look at why Trump may be considering strikes on Iran and the likelihood of a reignited conflict. Why no agreement? President Trump went into his discussions on Monday having described the temporary ceasefire with Tehran as being "on a massive life support".
Adding to anxiety in the region and global markets is the president's dismissal of Iran's latest proposal on Sunday as being "totally unacceptable", as well as a "piece of garbage".
The exact terms of Tehran's proposal have not been publicly disclosed, but Iranian state media have reported that the Islamic Republic is seeking a complete end to the war and formal recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz .
Iran has also reiterated on several occasions that its civilian nuclear programme is not up for discussion, viewing uranium enrichment as a matter of national sovereignty.
As with the details of the proposal, it is also unclear which demands Trump directly objected to.
For its part, Iran has also rejected US demands, with Iranian state media saying that an acceptance of the US proposal would have "meant Iran's surrender to Trump's excessive demands".
Speaking in the Oval Office on Monday before the security meeting, Trump told reporters: "I have a plan. Iran can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday before the meeting.
The president claimed that Iran had agreed to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium - something which he said they later pulled from their proposal on Sunday. Is war inevitable? According to two unnamed US officials cited by Axios on Monday , the president is inclined toward taking military action to force concessions on Iran's nuclear programme.
One official said Trump will "tune them [the Iranians] up a bit", while another said, "I think we all know where this is going".
Trump has for weeks threatened fresh strikes against Iran, but has yet to carry out his threats.
The cycle of threats and reports of deals nearing agreement, including from Axios , has added to the uncertainty about what the president's actual plan is. The president's frequent climbdowns from threats have led to the popularisation of the term 'TACO' (Trump Always Chicken Out), drawing mockery from both domestic audiences and within Iran.
The two officials who spoke to the US outlet said Trump is unlikely to launch strikes before his return from China, which he is due to visit on Wednesday and return on Friday.
Some analysts speculate that the president is seeking a quick and easy "victory", something he has shown a preference for on several foreign policy fronts, including in Venezuela and his "ceasefire" in Gaza. This largely fits with the president's previous criticism of US involvement of "endless wars" - a policy plank he seemingly reneged on by joining Israel in waging war on Iran.
The president is also said to be considering reviving "Project Freedom", the now-stalled plan of escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement of "Project Freedom" last week, however, also saw Iran relaunch strikes on the Gulf and fire warning shots at US vessels, indicating Tehran's determination not to hand Trump his easy win. Could China help avert conflict? China, which is friendly with Iran, has played no direct role in the conflict; however, it has been urging Tehran to secure a deal with Washington and to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Beijing is the largest buyer of energy from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz; however, it appears to have staved off the effects of the Hormuz blockade by having accrued the world's largest stockpile of crude oil. On Sunday, Iran's Ambassador to Beijing, Abdolreza Rahman Fazli, suggested that Beijing could serve as a guarantor for an agreement.
"Given the position that China holds for Iran and other countries in the Persian Gulf region, Beijing can serve as the guarantor for any agreement," Fazli wrote on X. "Any potential agreement must necessarily be accompanied by guarantees from the great powers and raised in the United Nations Security Council as well."
For its part, Washington has acknowledged the potential China could have in ending the conflict, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio urging Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last week to tell Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told,” Rubio said last Tuesday, ahead of Wang's meeting with his Iranian counterpart. "And that is what you are doing in the strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You’re the bad guy in this."