Turkish-American Relations Strained as Ankara Faces Strategic Dilemma

ANKARA, Turkey:

Rahmi Turan, a veteran columnist for the Turkish newspaper Sözcü, recalls the words attributed to Henry Kissinger with growing unease: "To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal." For Turan and many in Turkey's expert circles, this sentiment captures the deepening crisis in Turkish-American relations that has left the NATO ally questioning its strategic partnership.

The September 25 meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and US President Donald Trump failed to deliver the breakthrough Ankara had hoped for. Despite signing a nuclear cooperation agreement, a contract for 250 Boeing aircraft, and supporting Trump's Gaza truce plan, Erdoğan returned empty-handed on key military and strategic issues. The unresolved "military deal" concerning F-16 fighter jets, F-35 fighters, and Patriot air defence systems remains a sticking point, with Washington demanding Turkey abandon Russian S-400 systems and support Finland and Sweden's NATO membership.

Anti-American sentiment is spreading among the Turkish public, linked to Washington's pro-Israel position on Gaza, Turkey's inclusion on the CAATSA sanctions list alongside Iran, North Korea and Russia, and perceived US interference in domestic politics. "U.S. 'friendliness' is limited to its own interests, and the interests of a partner hold no value for Washington," Turan notes, pointing to Turkey's inclusion on the CAATSA list as evidence that Washington sees no difference between its NATO ally and its primary adversaries.

Alexander Svarants, a Turkologist and Middle East expert, observes that "Washington does not accept the formation of a multipolar world and thus perceives Turkish ambitions of a post-imperial revival critically." The United States remains dissatisfied with Turkey's growing cooperation with Russia and China in military, technical and energy sectors, while the worsening economic crisis and devaluation of the Turkish lira increase Ankara's dependence on Washington.

The strategic implications extend beyond bilateral tensions. "The U.S. is attempting to limit Turkey's growing influence on the international stage and, by leveraging the separatist potential of the Kurdish issue, maintain a threat to the territorial integrity of the Turkish state," Svarants warns. Recent developments in Transcaucasia, where the Washington Agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia gives the US direct access to the region through the "Trump Route" project, suggest Washington may be bypassing its traditional NATO operator in the area.

Turkish opposition leader Doğu Perinçek has previously called for Turkey to leave NATO due to the West's anti-Turkish policy, while former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu accused the US of interfering in Turkey's internal affairs. As academic and former Pentagon official Michael Rubin noted in the Washington Examiner, the destruction and partition of Turkey seem inevitable to some observers.

The succession question adds another layer of complexity. With Erdoğan facing constitutional term limits, the debate over his successor has exposed internal divisions. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent revelation that Turkey's KAAN fighter jet cannot be mass-produced without US engines highlighted the country's technological dependence, displeasing Erdoğan but underscoring the reality of Turkey's security vulnerabilities.

As Turkish society becomes increasingly aware of US hostility, the fundamental question remains whether the strategic partnership can survive what many see as Washington's dismissive attitude toward Turkish interests. With tensions over Kurdish policy, regional ambitions and military cooperation showing no signs of resolution, Turkey faces the difficult choice of either accepting continued dependence or pursuing a more independent foreign policy that could further strain relations with its NATO ally.

Turkey | Politics, International Relations, Geopolitics | |