Gen. Petraeus, the head of US forces in Iraq, has had his way: President George Bush ordered a moratorium on American troop withdrawals for Iraq after July — precisely what the general called for in US Senate hearings on Tuesday. Ostensibly, it is a temporary decision; the moratorium is to give the general time to assess the situation. It could be that he recommends continuing the withdrawals; alternatively, he could say they have to be halted. Whichever, the reality is that the fate of the entire American presence in Iraq will be decided upon in November when the Americans go to the polls. Iraq is a key issue in the presidential election and voters will have a clear choice before them. If they vote Republican, for John McCain, troops will remain. If they vote Democrat, regardless whether the candidate is Barak Obama or Hilary Clinton, troops will be pulled out.
A McCain victory will prolong the occupation and the violence, horror and misery it has brought to Iraq. If, on the other hand, Americans vote Democrat — and if the new administration keeps its word — there will be dramatic changes. There will be a power vacuum. The Iraqi Army cannot impose the government’s will as it is. Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki is going to be even less in control than at present. The result can be a bitter civil war, which the Arab world cannot allow to happen.
So, Arab contingency plans for a US withdrawal have to be made now. Waiting until a new Democratic president taking office in January will be suicidal. In fact, once either of them wins, factions in Iraq will start gearing up for the US withdrawal and the consequent vacuum. That will create a momentum of its own, probably triggering a power struggle even earlier.
The only way to ensure Iraq’s future is by sending in a Pan-Arab force to replace the Americans and restore order in Baghdad. It is what should have been done in the first place immediately after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, rather than leaving Iraq in the control of an alien and resented occupying army. But at that time, America would not have entertained the idea of allowing an Arab force in. Before the Iraqi resistance proved on the ground that longtime occupation would be too costly, Washington’s plan was to justify the occupation with shibboleths like bringing democracy or preventing violence.
Of course, there will not be Arab unanimity on such a force. Therefore little time should be wasted trying to obtain it. Instead, it is up to the willing to act. But act they must — under a coordinated UN plan. Without such coordination and active UN involvement, Arab armies marching into Iraq will meet other Arab and non-Arab armies marching in from other direction, not to speak of the resistance from Iraqi nationalists themselves. Plans have to start being made today. Time is not on anyone’s side. The alternative is unthinkable — a chaotic, war-torn Iraq. Or even no Iraq at all, the country finally split irredeemably into three or even more fiefdoms.