Saudi Sharif, American Bhutto

ISLAMABAD — Already squeezed by the US to share power with former premier Benazir Bhutto, embattling President General Pervez Musharraf has bowed to Saudi pressures to allow the return of his arch rival former premier Nawaz Sharif.

"His return is not the result of any specific deal with General Musharraf. An immense Saudi pressure is behind his return," a highly-placed source at President House told IslamOnlne.net on Sunday, November 25.

"During his meeting with King Abdullah, General Musharraf sought assurance that Sharif will behave and will not confront with him directly," continued the source.

He was not sure if Sharif has given any assurance to Saudi Arabia or Musharraf that he would do that.

Sharif, a two-time former premier, has already left Saudi Arabia earlier on Sunday on his second homecoming in less than two months.

The plane is due in Lahore, Sharif's political bastion in eastern Pakistan, at around 5:25pm (1225 GMT).

Thousands of supporters prepared a homecoming party, lining the streets and festooning Lahore with banners and posters.

Sharif, who was ousted by Musharraf in a 1999 coup and exiled to Saudi Arabia a year later, attempted to return on September 10.

He was immediately unceremoniously deported again despite a Supreme Court in his favor.

Government sources say this time around Sharif will not be sent back to Saudi Arabia or any other country.

"Situation is totally different this time."

Sandwiched

Observers believe the return of Sharif would further complicate the already turmoil political situation in Pakistan since Musharraf declared emergency and suspended the constitution.

They argue that his return leaves Musharraf sandwiched between Washington and Riyadh.

"General Musharraf doesn't want him to come back, but he cannot say no to the Saudis as he could not do that with the Americans," said the President House source.

"You can simply say that Bhutto is the candidate of Washington, while Sharif is the candidate of Riyadh."

Sharif went into exile in 2001 under an agreement with Musharraf brokered by King Abdullah, then Saudi Crown Prince.

Under the deal, he was supposed to stay away for ten years.

The President House source admits that Saudi Arabia is playing a vigorous and open role in Pakistani politics for the very first time.

"This is unprecedented. It seems as if both Washington and Riyadh are trying to install the government of their (respective) favor in Pakistan."

Sharif has clearly spoken of the Saudi role.

"Benazir has bowed to Washington, whereas I have bowed to the Khadim-e- Hurmain (King Abdullah). His every decision is acceptable to me," he told his workers in a phone address on Friday, November 23.

"I am not coming under any deal. My return is the result of some exclusive efforts made by Saudi friends, for which I will always be grateful."

Government sources say that although the Bush administration has not been formally taken into confidence on Sharif's return, it has signaled no objection.

US Ambassador Anne W. Patterson visited Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, the acting president of Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), on Saturday, November 24.

She reportedly conveyed the Bush administration's "best wishes" for Sharif on his return and political future.

Scenarios

Hamza Shahbaz Sharif, a nephew of Sharif, denies any deal between his uncle and General Musharraf.

"There is no deal whatsoever. If he had to strike a deal with the military dictator, he would have done eight years back," he argued.

Shahbaz could not explain how the return of Sharif, seen days ago as virtually impossible, was no a reality.

"I have nothing to tell you in this regard. What I know is that he is returning because of Saudi Arabia."

He also denid that his uncle has given any assurance to General Musharraf that he will not confront with him.

"He has not held out any assurance to General Musharraf. This is his country. Who can stop him from coming here. He cannot strike any deal with a military dictator," contended an emotional Hamza.

Political analysts believe that Sharif's return will indirectly serve Bhutto.

"There are strong chances that Bhutto will get the benefit of clash between different Muslim Leagues in the upcoming elections, which will divide the rightwing votes, that is why Washington will have no objection on Sharif's return," Irfan Siddiqui, a senior political analysts and columnist, told IOL.

"There might be a thinking in Washington to let Sharif goes back to Pakistan so that he could not merely increase pressure on General Musharraf and divide the Muslim League votes, which will ultimately favor their candidate [Bhutto]," he maintained.

Siddiqui believes the return of Sharif is not the story of one or two days.

"It was decided in September last when he was coming back to Pakistan from London. General Musharraf had requested the Saudi authorities to stop Sharif till he got reelected as president. He had assured the Saudi authorities that he would have no objection on Sharif's return after his re-election."

Siddiqui, who has been very close to Sharif, says it will be very difficult for Sharif's party to get him re-elected as prime minister.

"It is almost impossible in my opinion that his party will get enough votes to get him re-elected as prime minister for the third term."

Sources argue that no matter who wins the upcoming general elections, scheduled for January 9, neither Bhutto nor Sharif would be the prime minister.

"If the PML (N) wins the elections, then Shahbaz Sharif will be the prime minister, and if the PPP wins, then Bhutto will nominate her candidate for the post of prime minister."