Civil war “more likely’ in Iraq: outgoing British ambassador

LONDON - Iraq is more likely to erupt into civil war than transform into a stable democracy, Britain’s outgoing ambassador to Baghdad warned in a confidential memo to his government, the BBC said on Thursday.

Ambassador William Patey told Prime Minister Tony Blair and other senior ministers that Iraq was likely to break up along ethnic lines because of the sectarian violence, the public broadcaster said.

“The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy,” Patey wrote.

The ambassador made the assessment in his final cable—which the BBC said it had seen—before leaving Baghdad last week.

The warning was addressed to Blair and senior ministers, including the foreign and defence secretaries, and to military top brass.

“Even the lowered expectation of (US) President (George W.) Bush for Iraq—a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror—must remain in doubt,” Patey said.

The British government has been optimistic about Iraq’s future but Patey’s memo appears at odds with the official line.

He assessed that the situation in Iraq was “not hopeless” but would remain “messy and difficult” for the next five to 10 years.

Britain’s main opposition Conservative party said the Labour government needed to be more open about the extent of the difficulties in Iraq, while critics of the US-led invasion told the BBC the miltary coalition there had created a dangerous power vacuum.

Asked about the memo on Thursday at his regular monthly news conference, Blair said Britain would not be deterred from its mission in Iraq by the sectarian violence, which he said was motivated by people opposed to democracy.

“(Their) purpose is to put extremists in charge of countries, rather than those committed to democracy,” he said. The response to extremists should be to stand up for people who want democracy, liberty and the rule of law.

“That is what we are doing and however tough it is, we will see it through, and actually if you read the whole of the telegramme, that is precisely what William is saying,” he added.

On a visit to London July 24, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said his government would focus on ending violence in Iraq and enabling the withdrawal of the US-led multinational forces, which include a 7,200-strong British contingent.

But al-Maliki said that although his administration was dealing with sectarian conflict and violence, Iraq would not descend into civil war.

Patey said in his cable that to avoid a descent into civil war, it was essential to prevent Shiite militias from developing into a state within a state like Hezbollah in Lebanon. These militias include the Mahdi Army, which has been for many of the killings in Iraq.

Meanwhile, a former British ambassador to Moscow called for Blair to resign immediately, saying his “total identification” with Washington had wrecked Britain’s influence abroad and increased the chances of terrorism at home.

Sir Rodric Braithwaite wrote in the Financial Times newspaper that Blair had failed to defend British interests and done more to undermine the country’s position in the Middle East than Sir Anthony Eden, the British prime minister who led Britain into the Suez crisis in 1956.

Eden was forced to resign after he lost the support of his cabinet. The short-lived Suez war came to an end when Britain agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire.