Islamic Courts’ victory changes Somalia’s political map

After seizing control over strategic Somali cities, including the capital Mogadishu, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) changed the domestic balance of force and opened a new chapter in Somalia’s troubled political history, according to an article on PINR.com .

Analysts say the victory of Islamic courts was mainly due to the Somalis’ frustration over the growing violence, lawlessness and poverty. Their success was the first time that Islamic Courts take control over major Somali towns since the last government collapsed in 1991 and warlords took over, diving Mogadishu into fiefdoms.

Correspondents say the move unified Mogadishu for the first time in more than a decade. But the clashes have been the deadliest, with more than 330 people killed and about 1,500 wounded in the past month alone.

Violence broke out earlier this year when secular warlords united to form the Anti-Terrorism Alliance to tackle the Islamic Courts, who they allegedly accuse of harboring al-Qaeda rebels, a claim strongly denied by the Islamic Courts.

The Islamic Courts were set up in Somalia by clan-related businessmen in a bid to establish some law and order in a city without any judicial system. The first court was formed in 1996. Since then, the number of these bodies has grown to 14.

The courts have gained legitimacy and popular support through their ability to provide a judicial order based on Sharia law. Over time, they formed their own forces and expanded their tasks to running clinics and schools.

Surprise

The success of the ICU surprised all the players in Somalia’s political game, as well as all external powers with interests in the country. It forced the warlords to reposition themselves in the face of a growing power that had shifted the pre-existing balance of forces to its advantage. Some of the warlords declared their allegiance to the ICU, while others escaped the war-ravaged country.

More than any external player, the U.S., which is accused of supporting the warlords, was disadvantaged by the ICU’s success, which threatened a major goal of Washington’s foreign policy: prevention of the emergence of Islamic regimes anywhere in the world.

In testimony before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, State Department counter-terrorism coordinator Henry Crampton admitted that the Washington had underestimated the strength of the ICU and had an “imperfect understanding" of the group.

As the ICU swept across southern Somalia, the U.S. formed a Contact Group composed of its allies Britain and Italy, the former colonial powers in Somalia, as well as other European brokers in a bid to prevent an outright Islamic takeover of southern Somalia.

In two letters to the U.S., the ICU promised to be a responsible actor in the international community, to make sure that Somalia will not harbor terrorists and to disarm all militias and form a police force.

According to analysts, if the ICU succeeds in balancing between social experimentation and winning broad popular support, Somalia’s chaos will cede to relative order. But if the ICU loses its balance, the country will return to a fragmented configuration of clan-based politics with a high possibility of a –re-emergence of the discredited warlords.

The ICU now has the ability to become a force that transcends clan loyalties, but it must overcome its internal divisions. It must also decide whether it wants to negotiate with Somalia's Transitional Federal Government on a national unity government or set up a separate government based on Islamic law. Whatever it decides, the fact remains that the ICU’s victory has opened a new chapter in the country's political history.