Major Challenges Await New Saudi King

By Ashraf Kishk, IOL Correspondent

CAIRO, August 1, 2005 (IslamOnline.net) – The new ruler of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz, has behind him long years of experience and special characteristics that would undoubtedly ensure him a firm grip on the helm and enable him to ride out potential storms, but major challenges facing his rule would also put his potentials to the test.

Born in 1924, King Abdullah has been fed on politics and deeply inspired by his late father King Abdul Aziz, who founded modern-day Saudi Arabia in 1932.

His communication with scholars and intellectuals at a very young age has also expanded his horizons and polished up his skills.

Abdullah, who was pronounced king after King Fahd passed away Monday, August 1, is the 13th son of King Abdul Aziz.

His mother belongs to the powerful Shammar tribe which trained him as a warrior after he completed a religious education.

After proving his mettle, Abdullah was picked as the leader of the National Guards in 1964 and has since worked on modernizing the military establishment into an umbrella body of military, medical, cultural, social and housing entities for the welfare of the armed forces and the Saudis.

In 1975, King Khaled Bin Abdul Aziz named him deputy prime minister while retaining his National Guards post.

The quietly-spoken Abdullah has further been running the kingdom's day-to-day affairs since Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995, making him the de facto ruler.

It was Fahd himself who upheld the Saudi tradition of the crown prince succeeding the monarch by asking Abdullah to run the country’s affairs.

Saudi Arabia's crown prince has traditionally replaced the king on the monarch's death or abdication, but a law introduced by Fahd in 1992 opened the door for the succession to skip a generation.

The basic law removed the automatic nature of the succession, stating that a new king would be chosen by the Saud family as the "most capable" of the sons or grandsons of King Abdul Aziz.

The king is not a mere constitutional figurehead, but is expected, in his role as prime minister, to take important decisions.

Family Backing

King Abdullah is expected to come across a host of internal and external challenges that would put his political experience to the test.

Himself a half-brother of late King Fahd, Abdullah needs the full backing of the royal family and the so-called “Seven Sadiris” or the full brothers of King Fahd: Sultan, Salman, Abdul Rahman, Nayef, Turki and Ahmad.

Sultan, next in line to the throne after Abdullah, was named the new crown prince, although rivalry has sometimes been reported between the two men.

King Abdullah also does not see eye to eye on with Nayef, the interior minister, on the reform process, with the latter preferring a step-by-step approach.

The royal family today comprises up to an estimated 25,000 members, of whom around 200 are princes wielding influence.

To cope with the fast expanding dynasty, an 18-member council comprising senior family members and chaired by Abdullah was set up in June 2000 to arbitrate in family matters.

Economy

Though Saudi Arabia sits on a quarter of the world's proven oil reserves and a key crude exporter, Abdullah faces big state deficits and unemployment rates.

Saudi Arabia produces about 9.5 million barrels per day with the capacity for an additional 1.5 million barrels.

Impressive literacy figures -- 80 percent of males and 77 percent of females -- are not reflected in the employment market which relies heavily on some six million expatriate workers.

A recent survey found 79 percent of Saudis seeing unemployment as the major challenge facing the government, while less than 10 percent gave priority to corruption, religious extremism and political reform.

Average income has also slid back to $8424 a year in 2002 from $18000 in 1981 despite soaring oil prices which filled state coffers.

King Abdullah established in 2003 an anti-poverty fund after realizing the grave consequences of unemployment and poverty and how they play well into the hands of extremists and could be used to recruit terrorists.

Reform

Hand-in-hand with the security measures Abdullah instigated tentative political reforms over the past years.

This has included the launching of a national dialogue involving various segments of society, and the holding earlier this year of unprecedented nationwide elections to pick half the members of municipal councils.

Human rights also figured high on Abdullah’s agenda when he was crown prince.

He established the National Committee for Human Rights and a Press Syndicate for the first time in Saudi history.

The education ministry has also started reforming its curricula in a process overshadowed by international pressure following the recent string of terrorist attacks that hit the kingdom.

Feminist voices have also grown louder in the kingdom with a broad section of Saudi society – around 90 percent -- opting for empowering women and giving them more rights, including the right to drive a car.

Anti-corruption plans and programs have also been introduced to build on the yielding social and political reforms.

But the government is facing the challenge of how to strike the right balance between maintaining security and boosting democracy as the iron fist approach with extremists, though it paid off and led to the killing of Al-Qaeda leader in the Gulf, fanned the hatred culture and prompted extremists to go underground.

When Al-Qaeda hit the kingdom in May 2003, Abdullah launched a relentless crackdown on militants, who have directly targeted the Al-Saud regime as well as Westerners residing in the oil-rich kingdom.

The police mindset has restricted personal freedoms and almost muzzled free speech.

Journalists and writers speaking, for instance to Al-Jazeera channel, face detention and punishment for expressing their views without a prior permission.

Analysts further believe that the reform process and national dialogue should take into account ethnic and religious minorities in the kingdom, including Shiites and the Sufis.

The religious establishment, considered to be one of the regime’s cornerstones, is also one of the challenges facing Abdullah.

According to observers, he has to walk a delicate line between the reform process he champions and the status of the respected establishment and its influence.

Foreign Policy

King Abdullah is also faced with the challenge of improving ties with some Gulf states.

Relations with Bahrain, for instance, has soured after it signed a free-trade agreement with the United States in September of last year.

Saudi Foreign Minister Saudi Al-Faisal openly criticized the agreement as undermining the unity of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and standing as a stumbling bloc to Gulf economic integration.

A bridge linking between Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over-passing Saudi Arabia’s territorial waters is also a sticking point.

Saudis fear that the bridge might be used by terrorists to infiltrate into the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia has further locked horns with the UAE over a border demarcation agreement signed in 1974.

In the wider Middle East, Abdullah has been playing a pivotal role and has embarked on a series of multi-leg tour to enhance bilateral relations.

Long considered an Arab nationalist opposed to normalization with Israel, Abdullah won in March 2002 pan-Arab support for a peace plan offering Israel normal ties with Arab countries in exchange for withdrawal from occupied Arab land.

Relations with Libya have hit all time low after reports that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had plotted to assassinate Abdullah.

Abdullah also worked to restore ties with Washington, clouded by the Sept. 11 attacks and charges that Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi ideology fostered anti-Western violence.

Relations have further taken a downward trajectory after Saudis refused to cooperate with the US in its invasion of Iraq in 2003 without a UN mandate.

The US Air Force subsequently relocated its Gulf headquarters from the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia to Qatar, ending a 13-year presence in the kingdom.

But in April, Abdullah paid his second visit in three years to US President George W. Bush at his Texas ranch, where the two were pictured walking hand in hand in a strong message that both sides need one another.