The formation of the Somali Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI) in October 2004 in Kenya came as a result of two years of difficult peace negotiations. After nearly fifteen years of statelessness and civil strife, the outcome of this peace process is considered the best chance yet of ending the prolonged crisis, because it has succeeded in embracing all parties to the Somali conflict.
It has also been able to generate the all-inclusive and broad-based government that the Somalis have been waiting for.
These institutions, formed at Mbagathi in Kenya, have already completed their first year of existence. However, the long-delayed relocation to Somalia sparked a major rift over where the institutions should be based.
The President, the Premier and their supporters have relocated to Jowhar, 90 km north of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, because they consider the city too risky. However, the Speaker of the Parliament - and his supporters in the Parliament and in the Cabinet - argue the TFI must be based in the capital city. They argue that to fail to do so would be tantamount to a violation of the Transitional Charter.
But attempts by the Government of Yemen to help solve the split between the TFI have faced a several obstacles. The President and the Speaker are unable to agree not only on the issue of relocation, but several other contentious issues.The UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia has held consultations with Egyptian and Ethiopian authorities, and with heads of the African Union and the League of Arab States, in a bid to end the stalemate.
If nothing is done, the deepening rift between the supporters of the President and Speaker will speed up the demise of the already fragile TFI, and further weaken the fading hopes of the Somali people both inside the country and in the diaspora.Moreover, this rift threatens to trigger a renewed war in Somalia. New violence could very well create an opportunity for Islamic extremists to seize power, helping to destabilize the wider region both on the Horn of Africa and on the Arab Peninsula.
Islamic fundamentalists in Mogadishu and in other parts of Somalia have already established Islamic court systems, enforcing the courts’ rulings by closing cinemas and destroy shops that sell videos and music cassettes.The recent assassination attempt against the TFG Prime Minister during his recent visit to Mogadishu has stretched relations between the Mogadishu and Jowhar camps to breaking point.
Insecurity off the Somali coast has escalated sharply. Rocket-propelled grenades and assault rifles were recently fired at a cruise ship by Somali pirates, while several other ships have been attacked along the lawless coast.
There is a growing threat to the safety of ships passing along the entire coastline of Somalia. Although it has not been linked to wider terrorist groups, the lack of control and ease with which the pirates can operate certainly gives an encouraging sign to terrorist networks that they could use the region as a base without fear.
To conclude, despite the great promises of the Mbagathi Peace Process, the movement appears to be running out of steam.
The Transitional Federal Government (TFG), headed by President Abdullahi Yusuf and Premier Ali Mohamed Ghedi, is facing a series of challenges both within the country and internationally.
Mogadishu warlords, in collusion with clan-based Islamic fundamentalists and businessmen, have so far thwarted the TFG’s efforts to spearhead a nation-wide programme of post-conflict peace building and reconstruction. The confrontational attitudes shown by some members of the TFI have only encouraged circumstances favorable for destabilization and the breeding of terrorists, not only in Somalia but in the entire region.
The precarious situation in Ethiopia, triggered by the recent political violence following parliamentary elections in May, has brought extra complications to the TFG’s relations with Addis Ababa.
If the current internal political turmoil in Ethiopia continues, President Yusuf’s power base in Somalia will be weak, and the Ethiopian leadership will have no time for its proxies in the Somali Transitional Federal Institutions.
Ethiopia has championed the cause of its proxies in Somalia, but the current internal divisions, added to a potentially devastating war with its old enemy Eritrea with troops massing on either side of the border, getting involved in the affairs of Somalia at this point would be costly yet would bring very limited returns.
Yemen however could have an important part to play in moving the situation away from war and towards peace.
If Yemen maintains a position of non-intervention in the affair of Somalia, it unwittingly gives a vote for the continuation of chaos, increase destabilization and an inevitable encouragement of terrorism.
In the short term, intervention need only include the opening up of talks between the two sides, starting a renewed dialogue and negotiations between President Yusuf and the key political players in Mogadishu.
Yemen needs to organize a secret meeting between the sides as soon as possible.
If needed, the United Nations, the European Union, and the United States could be invited to attend this meeting.
The members of the TFG and the Cabinet from Mogadishu should primarily be represented by Hon. Sharif Hassan, the Speaker, Hon. Mohamed Qanyare, Hon. Musa Sudi Yalahow, Hon. Osman Ato and Hon. Habsade, who although from Baidoa, is seen as a staunch supporter of the Mogadishu camp.
The President and the Prime Minister should represent the Jowhar camp, along with their most important political allies and cabinet ministers.I believe that there is a great deal of willingness on the part of most of the key political players in Mogadishu to meet with the President and the Prime Minister to hammer out a deal acceptable to both sides.
If there is any perceived intransigence shown by the latter group concerning the Jowhar camp, I argue that it has been fuelled and exacerbated by Islamic fundamentalists and businessmen in Mogadishu.
They have show repeatedly that their opposition to the success of the government created in Kenya would jeopardize their interests, by weakening the political and economic gains accrued during the 14-year of lawlessness and anarchy.
I therefore believe that reconciling differences, which despite the seriousness of the situation I believe are relatively minor, between the Mogadishu and Jowhar camps would be a mortal blow against the Islamic militants in Mogadishu.
It is now clear that the Islamic militants in Mogadishu have created a system tantamount to Taliban’s Afghanistan, and will not settle for anything less than an Islamic government in Somalia.
Once the Jowhar and Mogadishu camps are reconciled, the TFI with massive domestic support and assistance from the international community would attend to post-conflict reconstruction and development.
The Islamic militant groups and the greedy businessmen who have benefited from the lawlessness and anarchy, without the support of the key political figures in Mogadishu, would succumb to a gradual inevitable extinction.
Even if both Jowhar and Mogadishu camps have on many occasions shown intransigence in their refusal to shift from their positions, the option of abstaining from intervention at this very crucial moment on the part of the Government of Yemen would be considered a vote for the continuation of chaos and anarchy in Somalia.
Chaos and anarchy are a breeding ground for terror. Terror has no respect for international borders – if it grows and becomes strong in Somalia, then the Islamic militant groups will be spread and infiltrate other countries of the region.
* The Hon. Eng. Munye Said Omar is Member of the Somali Parliament and lives in Aden.
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Yemen Observer Newspaper