Somalia a new mission impossible for Mbeki?

A FEW weeks ago, pirates hijacked a chartered ship just off the coast of Somalia carrying food aid for 28000 Somali tsunami victims, and demanded a ransom of $500 000.

The United Nations (UN) World Food Programme suspended all shipments of humanitarian assistance to Somalia because of the incident, which highlights the continuing lawlessness of a country that has not had a government since 1991.

Despite the fact that a transitional government for Somalia was finally agreed on eight months ago, after two years of highly charged talks, there is still no functioning government.

As the drama unfolded on the high seas off Somalia’s coast, the government that should have been addressing the very problems that allow such things to happen was busy squabbling about where in the country it should be based.

The legislators moved to Somalia from Kenya several weeks ago under duress from Kenya, where the government was formed. After months of trying to run Somalia from the safety of Kenya, the government was eventually pressed by its hosts to return home. And that is when the trouble really started.

Since its arrival home, the issue of where the administration should be based has consumed the energies of the president and his 275-member parliament, resulting in a rift that threatens the existence of this fledgling body.

President Abdullahi Yusuf, backed by most of his legislators, is said to favour the southern towns of Jowhar and Baidoa because of the poor security situation in Mogadishu, further north. However, a number of the warlords who form part of the new government still control large parts of Mogadishu and want the government brought to the capital to keep it under their influence. In fact, the speaker, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan, has threatened to install a rival assembly in Mogadishu if the president does not back down.

A further complication is that Mohamed Ibrahim Habsade, a parliamentarian who also controls Baidoa, does not want the administration in his town as he believes this will undermine his power.

This problem led to heavy fighting last month between forces loyal to several of the ministers who support the move to Baidoa, and those supporting Habsade. Thirteen people were killed in battles which included the use of mortars, antiaircraft guns, assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades — a sizeable armoury available at remarkably short notice, given the UN arms embargo against Somalia.

Meanwhile, the Mogadishu warlords now plan to impeach Yusuf (himself a warlord from Puntland) because of his handling of the issue of the seat of government. Ironically, the vote of no confidence might be better exercised over the entire government, were the imperative for accountable governance in this hotbed of terrorist organisations not so pressing.

Earlier this year, the African Union (AU) authorised the regional group dealing with the Somali problem, the Intergovernmental Authority of Development, to send a peace mission to Somalia to support the transitional government in its first phase. But there were concerns among authority member states (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda) about sending unarmed peacekeepers into such an unstable country. There were also strong objections by the Somalis because of the inclusion of Ethiopians in such a force. The two countries have an acrimonious relationship.

In any case, the refusal by the UN Security Council a fortnight ago to break its longstanding arms embargo against Somalia in order to allow peacekeepers to be armed has scuttled the plan.

Despite weapons seeming to pour indiscriminately into Somalia regardless of the embargo, allowing armed peacekeepers into such a volatile situation right now might spark open warfare.

So the Intergovernmental Authority of Development and the AU have gone back to the drawing board. AU chairman Alpha Konare has called on the international community to help solve the Somalian problem. But he is not likely to be swamped by offers.

Giving an indication of what the world is up against the International Crisis Group described the situation in Somalia recently as one where “al-Qaeda operatives, jihadi extremists, Ethiopian security services and western-backed networks are engaged in a shadowy and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction and assassination”.

Gripping stuff. It is no wonder the international community is not beating down the AU’s door.

But might we have a solution right in our own backyard? President Thabo Mbeki is already criss-crossing the continent on what many consider to be impossible peace missions. Might his next stopover be Mogadishu?