'Cheater' Arroyo faces people's wrath

By Johanna Son

MANILA - When rumors of a coup and a popular revolt rise in the Philippines, protest rallies begin, the currency stumbles and the distribution of political jokes through mobile phones reaches a peak, it can only mean one thing: a political crisis is brewing.

That situation escalated on Monday when President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo admitted she had phoned an election official during the May 2004 poll to discuss her share of the vote. After making the announcement, Arroyo apologized to the nation, describing her action as a "lapse of judgement", but denied she had been trying to influence the outcome of the election and said she would not quit, despite growing pressure for her to step down.
The evidence of so-called wrongdoing lies in tapes of wiretapped conversations between Arroyo and a member of the Commission on Elections during the counting of votes after the 2004 presidential poll. In these tapes, which Arroyo's camp says have been tampered with by groups seeking to destabilize the government, a voice that sounds like the president's asks elections commissioner Virgilio Garcillano about the progress of vote-counting in some parts of the country.

The commissioner, supposed to be an independent official, replies with references to adjusting upward the number of votes for Arroyo and says he would "take care" of vote results. At one point, the voice that sounds like Arroyo's asks for reassurances of still "winning by one million votes".

In Monday's televised address, the president did not directly refer to the tape recording, which was released to the media three weeks ago. But she did say she had spoken to an election commissioner.

A crisis in the making

The indications of a crisis have been apparent for more than a month, putting politics into overdrive in this Southeast Asian country of 80 million people known for its free-wheeling, noisy brand of democracy.

It also highlights, once again, questions about where the Philippines' democratic institutions stand, nearly 20 years after the 1986 "People Power" revolt that ended the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos and restored democracy to the country.

Talk of calling for a third popular revolt - the second one in 2001 booted out former president Joseph Estrada - is fueling worries that Filipinos are adopting a bad habit of kicking out their leaders and using what some call "mob rule", instead of constitutional means, to bring about political change.

"Gloria running out of time", was splashed across a Manila tabloid and "Oust Gloria!" placards were carried by protesters who marched toward the presidential palace over the weekend asking Arroyo to step down.

In late May, Arroyo's husband, brother-in-law and son, an elected member of the House of Representatives, were accused of receiving funds from illegal gambling and are now the subject of a Senate inquiry. Then in early June Arroyo was accused of having cheated in last year's elections.

News reports said more than 5,000 people - still a far cry from the hundreds of thousands to millions who took part in the 1986 and 2001 protests that unseated two Philippine presidents - took part in rallies.

The president had earlier chosen not to address the issue of the tapes, saying that both the official and unofficial counts in the 2004 election, where foreign observers were present, proclaimed her the duly elected winner. "They want to entrap me, but I will not surrender to the destabilizers," she said on June 17.

Yet pressure continued to mount for her to speak, "before it is too late". "Her not speaking on the matter is affecting her credibility," said Senator Roilo Golez.

As speculation continued, Sixto Macasaet of the Caucus of Development NGOs, one of the biggest supporters of the 2001 protests that led to Estrada's ouster and the assumption of power by Arroyo, then the vice president, said, "As former supporters, we hope it's not true, but if she's the one on tape, painful as it is to us, she has to accept that she has to step down."

Tape scandal takes over

The Philippine peso fell to nearly 55 pesos to the dollar last week, the lowest in months. Positive news, like that of 5% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, was overshadowed by the tape scandal. Since the accusation broke, it has dominated talk shows, radio commentaries and online weblogs, and the tapes can be downloaded from the Internet.

Apart from calling for a third revolt, some politicians have urged the creation of independent commissions and others are now calling for impeachment proceedings.

But while these calls create a lot of noise, they may not necessarily lead to political action. Analysts doubt the opposition has the strength to impeach Arroyo or the popular support needed to stir up the kind of protests that forced Estrada from the presidency.

"Tell me, which politician hasn't cheated?" argued Cathy Martelino, an employee of a publishing agency. A women, Celeste, who works in the Makati financial district asked, "Are we really shocked by this, or just shocked that cheaters can get caught?"

For all the column inches, radio hours and coffee-shop talk devoted to the tapes, Filipinos do not appear - not yet at least - inspired enough to take to the streets again. "People power fatigue", some call it.

"There is a calibrated and methodical plot, whose authors have not yet been identified, to overthrow the government. This plot apparently seeks to press for a change of government through extra-constitutional and extra-legal modes," wrote political commentator Amando Doronila in the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

But "the people are not in the mood to be used as cannon fodder on behalf of the disgruntled hotheads and rabble rousers," he added.

While the truth must be established, Doronila said allegations should be processed through constitutional means, such as impeachment. "Any other mode destroys the constitutional system and invites a regime of lawlessness, leading to anarchy."

One politician has even suggested that Arroyo need only apologize, because there is no real credible alternative to her as president, and Filipinos might in fact forgive her. Her decision to admit a lapse in judgment but deny wrongdoing may even help ease the pressure on her presidency.

Professor Felipe Miranda of the University of the Philippines said the situation - including the use of humor and sarcasm through mobile-phone jokes, as in the weeks before the 2001 revolt - shows that "right now, we have to see what the threshold of the society is" on the tape issue.

"People also learn from the past, after giving previous leaders the benefit of the doubt, but as time passes, this becomes shorter," Miranda said on television.

For now, Filipinos continue to use creative protests, downloading and passing on ring-tones for mobile phones featuring a voice that sounds like Arroyo's saying, "Hello, Garci? Garci? [Garcillano's nickname]. I'll win by a million votes?"

Beyond the truth of the tapes, of whether or not the president cheated, and what means should be used to get to the truth of the allegations, Filipinos should be worrying about other questions.

An elections commissioner occupies a constitutionally mandated office and is supposed to be impartial - and not, as the voice that appears to be Garcillano's talking to the president, refer to "our side" in an election. The fact that the president indeed called the commissioner puts into question an agency vital to the integrity of a democratic electoral process - and the selection of the country's leader.

A former elections commissioner, Christian Monsod, recalled that ex-president Corazon Aquino never called him and that Estrada telephoned only in 1992, to ask about election procedures. "But to ask about status, about [margins] of votes, I don't think that is a question that should be asked by any candidate - particularly by a president - of an [election] commissioner she appointed."

Philippines | Politics | |