Democracy cannot work with occupation

January 12, 2005

By Linda S. Heard

The turnout may have been disappointingly low, but overall the Palestinian vote was considered a success. It was far from perfect in that some 20,000 Palestinians working in Egypt were prevented from returning to cast their ballots by the closure of the Rafah border crossing, while some argue that Palestinians throughout the diaspora should have been permitted to submit postal votes. After all, most didn't choose to be exiles and their rights of return are now in the hands of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen).

Despite flaws, the Palestinians now have a democratically elected government. Well done! So now what? The "by the people, for the people" kind of democracy surely cannot function while both the people and its leadership live under occupation. With all the will in the world, Abu Mazen and his team can do little to improve the Palestinian lot without the cooperation of Israel and the sincere goodwill of the United States, and to a lesser extent, Europe.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair believes he has a major role to play in facilitating a Palestinian state but he is just about the only one who does.

His much-vaunted conference to be held in London during March has been virtually snubbed by both the United States and Israel, while the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) complains it has had just about enough of being lectured on what it should and shouldn't do so as to "deserve" a state.

In reality, Blair, longing for his place in history following the Iraq debacle and the collapse of the Northern Ireland parliament, has little clout when it comes to this conflict. The Palestinians want to return to the peace table for final status negotiations. Blair says himself he cannot deliver. The Palestinians naturally ask why they should bother going through the motions but, nevertheless, faced with little alternative, they probably will.

In Blair's alternative reality, US President George W. Bush is anxious to engage in putting the two sides together once his conference prepares the groundwork. Few share Blair's enthusiasm or belief. No member of the current American administration is willing to commit political suicide by twisting Israel's arm to do anything it doesn't want to.

The US Senate is wholeheartedly and unconditionally on Israel's side, the pro-Israel lobbies swell Republican coffers, the mainstream media all but ignores Palestinian suffering, while a segment of Bush's own Evangelical support base long for the day the Jews rebuild their temple in the belief the Second Coming will ensue.

Indoctrinated

At the same time a large percentage of the American public has either been indoctrinated into believing Palestinians support terrorism or they are ignorant as to the occupation. Astonishingly some think it is the Palestinians who are occupying Israeli land, according to polls.

So the American government has little incentive to be an honest broker, Downing Street is verbal but incapable, and the United Nations Security Council sympathetic but hidebound by the wielding of America's veto in Israel's favour. That said is there anyone who can make a difference? The United States and Israel both put the onus on Abu Mazen, a colorless individual with none of former President Yasser Arafat's flair.

A PLO veteran, who was instrumental in drawing up the Oslo accords, Abbas is considered by some, including the respected Middle East expert Robert Fisk, as being America's man on the lines of Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai or Iraq's Eyad Allawi. I'm not so sure. He may simply be a canny player.

While it is true that Abbas was voted in with a substantial majority, it is also true that had the jailed Marwan Al-Barghouthi been a contender, the outcome would probably have been different.

Put simply, the Palestinians weren't exactly spoilt for choice. At this juncture, all they can do is give Abbas the benefit of the doubt and hope he won't be persuaded to sell them out.

Abbas is walking on eggshells. To maintain credibility, he has to keep a healthy distance between himself and Israeli premier Ariel Sharon while, at the same time, developing a working relationship.

He would also be advised to avoid grinning photo-ops on the White House Rose Garden as he made the mistake of doing during his brief term as Prime Minister.

Judging by his recent trip to the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza, draped in the flag of the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, Abu Mazen is getting a feel for the balancing act demanded of him.

Sharing a platform with the wife of Marwan Al-Barghouthi, he swore to follow Arafat's footsteps, and urged Israel to dismantle all colonies, withdraw to pre-1967 borders, permit the return of refugees and release all Palestinian prisoners.

Carried away by the fiery rhetoric, upon hearing of Israel's killing of seven teenage Palestinians in a strawberry field, Abbas denounced the Israeli military as "the Zionist enemy". He was later to apologize due to US pressure putting his slip of tongue down to the emotion of the moment. Israel, however, is never made to apologize for the killing of Palestinian civilians.

Short honeymoon

Once a short honeymoon period is over, Abbas and his cabinet will be expected to perform big time. The United States and Israel will look to him to rein in the militants while his people will expect a crackdown on corruption, the home-coming of their loved ones from Israeli jails, and a firm date for final settlement talks. It's a tall order by everyone's standards.

More than anyone, Abbas knows that unless he can offer his people sweeteners, he has little chance of succeeding.

Empty-handed, this is why he failed as prime minister and fell out with Arafat. The difference between then and now is that Sharon and Bush are being more cooperative or appearing to be so. Sharon is mulling over the release of a substantial number of prisoners while Colin Powell has promised the PNA will receive more cash, adding, now is the time to return to "the Roadmap".

Whatever political system is currently in place within the Palestinian territories, it is a pale imitation of true democracy. But there is hope. Much rests on Abu Mazen's shoulders.

Whether they are strong enough to bear the load without caving in to the inevitable pressure from all sides has yet to be seen. Who knows, this softly spoken lawyer may surprise us yet.

Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com