World's Most Bizarre Country Awaits Abdullahi

The East African (Nairobi)
OPINION
October 18, 2004

Abdulkadir Khalif
Nairobi

Around 9:50 pm, on October 10, radio stations throughout East Africa announced the final tally of an election process that had lasted for about 20 hours.

Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, the de facto leader of the self-declared state of Puntland, was elected Somalia's interim president. His mandate is to run the affairs of the Federal Republic of Somalia for five years.

President Abdullahi Yusuf garnered 189 votes in the third and final round against a mere 79 votes by his closest challenger, Abdullahi Ahmed Adow. The election, which took place at Kasarani Stadium in Nairobi, Kenya, attracted 26 candidates, including Dr Abdiqassim Salad Hassan, the president of the Transitional National Government (TNG), whose three-year term in office expired a year ago. President Abdullahi Yusuf is lucky to have the chance to serve his people, but he is welcome to the most bizarre country in the world. This is a country that underwent dictatorial rule for two decades before falling apart some 14 years ago and since then has gone through the most anarchic period in its history.

Though it is not entirely news to the new president, he is to tackle the multiple problems of a country and a nation shattered by arms proliferation, clan warfare, religious conflicts and hundreds of other ills.

Somalia is an ever-shifting political landscape as faction leaders change loyalties. The country has also constantly been greatly affected by the global war on terrorism, which brought about a United States' sea and air surveillance and an economic embargo that has affected, among other sectors, the Hawala banking system.

There was public relief when the presidential candidates outlined their manifestos to the Members of Parliament a few days before the election. As each presidential hopeful tried to outline what he or she (one woman) thought were the needed corrective measures, there was indication that Somalia was actually sicker than it looked.

All candidates agreed on the need for disarmament and demobilisation of militias, but some clearly indicated their reservations about foreign peace-builders to assist the new government. Some contestants even spoke on the need to rule the country with an iron fist.

While some candidates proposed romantic ways of ruling the country, like enhancing the Khat (a semi-narcotic herb), others talked of the need to tie the country's public and business interests to the Western economic system in order to accelerate recovery and progress.

President Abdullahi Yusuf himself told the parliament two days before the election that it would take him one year to pacify Somalia, failing which he would resign. He repeated the statement upon wining the election.

Many people in Somalia see Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf as a no-nonsense man who is old enough (70) to realize the needs, wants and obstacles faced by the Somali people. He is expected to use his broad experience as a military officer, a rebel leader and an administrator of Puntland state to facilitate further reconciliation and rehabilitation of the country and the restoration of national confidence.

Because he is the outcome of a fair and free election, witnessed by many Somalis and widely followed through the media by the whole world, he is seen as a genuine president. Some observers estimate that 80 per cent of Somalis have faith in his capabilities. But that does not mean he has no enemies. Knowing Somalia, there must be some people somewhere already plotting for the government's downfall.

There are strong separatist groups, especially in the northwestern regions. They have been at loggerheads with Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf well before he was elected President of Somalia. He has to win the hearts and minds of the people in those regions, even in the face of the worst opposition.

Religious advocates and Islamists who detest anyone with secular ideas are everywhere in Somalia these days. He has to convince them that there is non-sectarian, sensible way of good governance. In addition, clan sentiment is one malady in the Somali society that can be revived any time, and some people will certainly employ it to trip up the new government to the ground.

Activists likely to cause major upsets are the women's associations and professional groups. They tend to pursue their goals by peaceful means. Women trying to win back the full 12 per cent quota they were to get from the parliament, but in the end were given only 8 per cent.

President Abdullahi Yusuf has to come to Mogadishu as soon as he can, armed not with weapons but with International support, including diplomatic recognition, plus moral and material backing. He is in the same position as Madagascar's Marc Ravalomanana who won the day against former president Ratsiraka two years ago when he received firm support from the international community led by the the US.

Luckily enough, Col Ahmed knows better that any other person that the new government's enemies do not want their opposition to be an exercise in futility. Even the most pessimistic lot do not also want their fears of a failed government proven true.