Abdullahi Ahmed Barise and Afyare A. Elmi

Somalia is the hen in a fox-brokered peace

By ABDULLAHI AHMED BARISE and AFYARE A. ELMI
Globe and Mail Update

Violence against Somali civilians paid off handsomely for the warlords and the hostile neighbours who supported them.

These warlords and their foreign backers selected the members of the newly created 275-member parliament, thus concluding the peace process held in Kenya last month. The regional organization, Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which sponsored the talks, utilized a sham process to produce the results that Ethiopia and Kenya, Somalia's historic enemies, wanted. It has broken all the rules and procedures set for the conference. Contradicting its earlier official position (political leaders, warlords and the traditional leaders would select MPs at the sub-clan level), IGAD has implemented the Ethiopian plan that the Somali warlords should select the MPs.

Unfortunately, this bogus process leaves civil society and women's representation to the warlords' justice. Although the interim charter reserved 12 per cent of the seats for women, few women ended up becoming parliamentarians. IGAD has also denied a feasible role for traditional and religious leaders, and civil-society groups.

As the human-rights records of many of the individuals in the parliament and the illegal process that IGAD approved show, the illegitimate institution born in Nairobi cannot be expected to respect human rights, end the civil war or create democracy. In fact, if their culture and past behaviour show anything, these warlords cannot even work together.

Moreover, the process used sends a horrible message that the more one abused human rights, the more privileges one would get in selecting the MPs of his clan and, sometimes, for other clans.

The relevant question is: What can be done? Should the Somali people and the international community give another chance to the warlords and those who used them as proxies for the past 14 years?

As biased and illegitimate as the process was, and as unacceptable as the result is, there are steps that can be taken to limit the potential abuses that these warlords and their foreign supporters could inflict on Somali civilians.

Abuse of power and military repression are among the root causes of the Somali conflict. The interim charter that Ethiopia and Kenya forced on the Somalis must be revisited, perhaps by Somali experts. It is necessary to create a powerful upper house that actually represents the clan constituencies in the country. The current parliament represents the warlords, and political factions. Moreover, there is an urgent need to create a human-rights tribunal that investigates past and present human-rights atrocities. Besides guarding the system against abuses, these two institutions would also help address the trust deficit among the Somali clans.

There is a widespread belief among Somalis that Ethiopia, even if its political proxies become leaders, is determined to block any genuine attempt to re-establish Somalia as a state. It has been the most important destabilizing factor in Somalia. It has helped warlords to wage and perpetuate the civil war. It has been sending arms to Somalia, thus violating Security Council Resolution 733. Ethiopia has also undermined previous peace initiatives, such as the Cairo peace accord in 1997 and Arta peace process in 2000. By keeping Somalia in the status quo, Ethiopia believes that it would eliminate a historic enemy. The world must watch closely the behaviour of this hostile neighbour.

To enhance Somalia's chance for peace, the United Nations must become more involved in the country's peace-building efforts and provide sustained and timely assistance. The U.S. government and the European Union could also play an important role in ending the civil war. Since they provide most of the aid, diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia and Kenya from Washington and Brussels could make all the difference.

Finally, peacekeeping forces will be required to create a secure environment, disarm the warlords and train strong Somali police and military forces. This is an important and sensitive issue. How this is managed will make or break the peace effort.

Peacekeeping forces from the Muslim countries would have fewer problems than the proposed African peacekeeping forces. Such a step would also deny an opportunity to those who want to spoil or undermine the peace process to use cultural, health or religious justifications.

The Somali conflict is "ripe for resolution." A widespread realization exists that no faction or clan can impose its will on others by force; there is a growing civil society in most parts of Somalia, particularly in the areas of education and media. Somalis in the diaspora are significantly contributing to the stabilization and reconstruction of the country.

As happened in Mozambique - a successful peace-building case in Africa - if the hostile neighbours and the warlords are controlled, Somali people will get a durable peace. On the other hand, imposing the Ethiopian-backed warlords on the Somali people, without the checks needed, would restart the civil war.

The inauguration of an illegitimate parliament should not give the perception that peace has been achieved. The Somali experience shows signing papers and swearing ceremonies do not bring peace. It is the implementation that matters. The conclusion of the Nairobi peace process should be seen as a first step of a long journey, and a bad one at that.

Abdullahi Ahmed Barise is a professor of psychology at Zayed University in Dubai. Afyare A. Elmi is a graduate student at the University of Toronto. Both are Somali Canadians.