Monday September 13, 2004
The UN's nuclear watchdog meets this week meets to discuss Iran's nuclear programme. Simon Jeffery explains.
Does Iran have a nuclear programme?
The country is close to completing a civilian nuclear programme that would allow it to generate electricity - but, as fears about the spread of weapons of mass destruction grow among western governments, suspicion has mounted that Tehran intends to build a bomb. These fears have been exacerbated by Iran's failure to fully reveal its programme to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog.
Could Iran build a bomb?
The nuclear material used in a civilian nuclear reactor is simply a less enriched version of that needed for a warhead. Therefore, a civilian nuclear programme (permitted under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty) could act as cover for a weapons programme if, as Iran's does, it includes fuel enrichment technologies.
What happens this week?
The IAEA's governing board is discussing a report by the head of the IAEA, Mohammed ElBaradei, on the Iranian programme. If Iran is found to have violated the non-proliferation treaty, it could be referred to the UN security council (on which the five permanent members are the only five countries permitted by the treaty to hold nuclear weapons) for punitive measures such as sanctions. More likely - and suggested in a draft European resolution - is that Iran will be given until a November meeting of the board to satisfy the IAEA that it has no military intentions for its nuclear technology. The IAEA could demand on the spot inspections of suspected nuclear facilities and an end to experiments with nuclear material. If Iran refuses, it will then be referred to the security council.
What are the concerns over the civilian programme?
The original plan was for Russia to supply nuclear fuel to Iran and take it away when it was spent. That changed when Iran announced that it had begun mining uranium ore and intended to take control of the fuel cycle, meaning the amount of nuclear fuel it was enriching - and the levels to which it was enriching it - would be outside international scrutiny.
There have been two other major developments. First came the investigation of the rogue Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, and the revelations that he had ordered reconditioned nuclear equipment to be sent to Libya, North Korea and Iran. Second was that Mr ElBaradei's report revealed a secret centrifuge programme for enriching uranium, and evidence of weapons-grade fuel. Iran insists the traces of high-enriched material IAEA inspectors found on the machinery were the result of buying already contaminated units on the black market.
Who sits on the IAEA board?
The 137 member states elect 35 of their number to serve for a 12 month period. The board is, however, subject to international pressures and diplomacy. The US, Israel and the European trio of France, Britain and Germany all believe Iran has ambitions to build a bomb, but the differences between them are over how they think it should be stopped. The US favours sanctions, while the Europeans have been following a policy of "constructive engagement" with Tehran, attempting to persuade it to accept a negotiated end to its programme. However, the Europeans appear to be losing patience after almost a year of talks, and are moving closer to the US position.
What would Iran want?
The European aim is for Iran to end its work on taking control of the fuel cycle - therefore importing civilian-standard uranium - but the early signals from Tehran are that the theocratic regime is unwilling to comply unconditionally. It may seek major concessions from the west in return, including a trade agreement and transfer of civil nuclear technology. It may ask the US for an agreement not to attack it, in return for which it may also offer to assist in stabilising Iraq and Afghanistan. Washington is, however, unlikely to wish to be seen to be rewarding such nuclear brinkmanship.
Is this another Middle East crisis?
There are plenty of people who do not wish to see Iran with a nuclear bomb. Senior members of the US administration have threatened covert military operations, and Israel has warned it could mount a pre-emptive strike against an Iranian nuclear reactor in much the same way as it attacked the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Daura in June 1981.
A major worry is that the situation could spark an arms race in the Middle East. Israel is, at present, the only country in the region to have nuclear weapons (although it neither confirms or denies it has them, part of a policy of nuclear ambiguity), but an Iranian bomb could prompt it, or other countries, to arm themselves even further. The German foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, has described the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East as a "nightmare scenario".