Is Osama bin Laden’s scripted arrest imminent?

By Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah
Sep 10, 2004, 12:22

The upcoming presidential election in the U.S. is less than 2 months from now and it is a dead draw. No political pundit worth his salt can accurately predict the outcome of the election. As predicted, George W. Bush had received a bump of 9-10% in the popularity poll this week in the wake of last week’s political convention. This is quite normal but the lead normally fizzles out as the days wore by.

The Democratic Party nominee John Kerry also received a smaller bump, only 6-7%, in the popularity poll, which nonetheless had evaporated very fast. Under this backdrop, George Bush desperately needs a world event that might give him a decisive lead no matter how small that is. The candidate Mr. Bush is counting on Pakistan to hand him that lead through the arrest of numero uno man or the big enchilada of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden. That will surely seal Bush’s election victory in the November 2, 2004, election.

As I was perusing the news of hurricane Frances that had a landfall in Eastern Florida on Sunday (September 5, 2004) morning and which is now entering the warm water of Gulf of Mexico and coming towards Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana (where I live), a particular news drew my attention in the Reuters page kindly provided by Yahoo. The Reuters headline blared, “U.S. Official Says Close to Catching Bin Laden.” I thought for a moment that maybe Osama was cornered in somewhere in the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan; therefore, it is a matter of time when he will be arrested. But that is not the case to be.

The Reuters report states that the U.S. and its allies have “put Osama bin Laden on the defensive, increasing chances of his capture soon.” This was revealed in Pakistani news media on September 5, 2004 . The newspaper has referred to Mr. Cofer Black, a U.S. counter-terrorism official who also visited Bangladesh. Mr. Cofer was in Dhaka to talk to Khaleda Zia Administration about Bangladesh’s effort to combat global terrorism. Mr. Cofer was probably visiting Dhaka because of 8-21 grenade attack. The U.S. is mostly interested now in catching Osama bin Laden. In this regard, Bangladesh is hardly interesting a place for America

Mr. Cofer Black is a State Department coordinator for global counter terrorism. He met with the Pakistani official recently. The U.S. is particularly interested in Pakistan’s effort to capture the remnant of al-Qaeda high command. The arrest of high value persons from al-Qaeda has political implication for George W. Bush. In particular, the arrest of Osama bin Laden, the big enchilada of al-Qaeda, may pay a high election dividend for George W. Bush. He will receive a nudge in the popularity poll, which might give him the edge to outsmart John Kerry. Bush may take credit for his get-tough with jihadi al-Qaeda organization. His election promise to make America a safer place will get currency amongst the voters.

Therefore, the arrest of Osama bin Laden right before the election has a huge political implication for George Bush. The Republican Party is well known for secrecy. Many people, especially in the academic circuit, think that the Democratic candidate in 1980 election Jimmy Carter had lost to the Republican challenger, Ronald Reagan, because Ayatollah Khomeini did not release the hostage that they took in November1979 after seizing the U.S. embassy in Teheran. For that matter, there may have been a secret deal between Ronald Reagan and the Ayatollahs of Iran over the release of the hostage. The moment Mr. Reagan took oath of office in January 1981 Iran released every one of the hostages without even signing any paper or treaty. I will let the readership conclude from this strange coincidence.

Now turning back to Osama bin Laden’s imminent arrest as declared by the State department’s official in Pakistan, let me cite where Mr. Black has stated the piece of information. In Islamabad, the U.S. counter terrorism official said that the entire “infrastructure” was in place to capture the most valuable player of 9-11 tragedy. Mr. Black was talking to Pakistan’s ‘Daily Times’ reporter. What did Mr. Black refer to when he mentioned the word “infrastructure”? I have interpreted his statement as follows: the U.S. and her ally, Pakistan, now know where Osama bin Laden is hiding in the frontier area.

The government of Pakistan must have adequate soldiers and informants to know the whereabouts of Osama. In other words, they have cornered him and on a moment’s notice, he could be arrested. That brings to the speculation that perhaps Mr. Bush is dramatizing the arrest of big enchilada of al-Qaeda to shore up his election victory. One may remember that the overall theme of this month’s political convention in the big Apple, NYC, was combating global terrorism. The candidate’s acceptance speech had mentioned over and over that keeping America safe from outside terrorists was candidate Bush’s chief concern. Under this backdrop, if the U.S. and her ally, Pakistan, could capture Osama bin Laden, it will be a big victory, which could serve as a catalyst for the election victory on November 2.

In the event the Pakistani authorities capture Osama and hand him over to the U.S. official before November 2, 2004, I should opine that the event is being stage managed to give Mr. Bush a lift in popularity poll. This indeed could happen. We have read from time to time in various newspapers that the joint operation team comprising of Pakistani soldiers and the U.S. team have been combing the border area in the mountainous region of Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan. The Internet was abuzz about the news that Osama and his lieutenants have been cornered and their movement is being monitored up close from a vantage point.

Therefore, in a moment’s notice, Osama bin Laden could be arrested. If this is correct, then Mr. Cofer Black’s statement should not be taken with grain of salt. Mr. Black is so confident about the impending arrest of Osama that on Sunday (September 5, 2004) he said, “Success against people that you know about, Osama, could happen tomorrow, could happen the day after, a week from now, or a month from now.”

A confident Mr. Black told the news media in Pakistan, “In counter-terrorism, the programs are in place. We are after these guys globally. Success against people that you know about, Osama, could happen tomorrow, could happen the day after, a week from now, or a month from now.”

The U.S. State Department’s official on counter-terrorism told private Geo Television the following: “Osama bin Laden is probably the most hunted man in the planet now. Osama bin Laden and his associates at that level are primarily defensive, they spend most of their time trying to keep from getting caught. If he (bin Laden) has a watch, he should be looking at it because the clock is ticking. He will be caught. Programs are in place and what I tell people (is) I would be surprised but not necessarily shocked if we wake up tomorrow and he has been caught along with all his lieutenants.”

The above statements by Mr. Black are quite revealing. The U.S. official is speaking very forcefully with poise and candor. This makes me curious. Is the arrest of Osama bin Laden imminent? If Osama’s much talked about arrest come right before November 2, 2004, then the election outcome will go in favor of Bush. The Democrats may say anything they want in protest, but they have to abide by the election result.

Many a thing happens behind the curtain. If Gen. Pervez Musharraf had made a secret deal with the Bush Administration to arrest Osama bin Laden in the most opportune moment, then he will be handsomely rewarded for his effort and valor. It will be a ‘win-win’ situation for both Pervez Musharraf and George W. Bush. The impending arrest of Osama for sure will end a chapter of global terrorism but it could hardly extinguish all the fire that is raging in various parts of Muslim world. The West should better address the issues that had grappled the Islamic world. Or else, the fire would rage and breed more terrorists. -SAN-Feature Service

[Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA]

© Copyright 2003 by The New Nation