04/06/2004 08:41 - (SA)
Liesl Louw
Pretoria - "When word reaches you 'Kiplagat is in court', you should know it's because I put my signature on so many expenses for the Somalis."
Chief Somalian peace negotiator Bethuel Kiplagat's tongue-in-cheek warning to conference-goers in Pretoria last week, has sombre undertones: chances are slim Kliplagat will land in jail for guaranteeing hotel, restaurant and transport bills of the 600-odd Somali delegates to the negotiations in Kenya over the past few months. However, what does concern Kiplagat, is that the international community might get so fed-up with the long-winded negotiations that the necessary financial aid won't be forthcoming.
Somalia is the only African country without an internationally recognised government.
Anarchy rules
The government collapsed and anarchy now rules the country where warlords have waged civil war for many years and thousands of people have died. Somalis fled the country in their millions seeking a better life elsewhere, including South Africa.
Following 18 months of peace negotiations a tiny flicker of hope has emerged promising a binding agreement to restore order.
Complex conflicts raging between warlords, gangs, clans and sub-clans, traditional authorities and political factions, have made it difficult to establish who speaks with the true voice of Somalis.
And that is why there are so many participants in the peace negotiations.
Murky role
An added complication is the fact that a section of Somalia is functioning as an independent state, Somaliland. In addition a the murky role is being played by certain neighbouring countries and international powers.
Kiplagat admits there is a likelihood that the latest plans for a transitional government might fail.
"During the previous negotiations Somalis went to Mecca and swore on the Koran to stop fighting, but it didn't work.
"We cannot be as naive as to believe that this time round we will definitely by successful," Kiplagat, a member of Africa Peer Review Mechanism-panel, told the conference organised by the Africa Institute.
The crisis in Somalia resulted after General Mohamed Siad Barre seized power in 1969 in a coup and civil war broke out in 1978. Barre's regime was overthrown in an armed revolt. Somaliland, in the northwest seceded at the time.
Black Hawk Down
In December 1993 the US sent troops to the region - a disastrous decision that resulted in a "second Vietnam" for the US. Somali resistance and cruel attacks on peace-keeping troops whose bodies were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu revolted Americans. The film Black Hawk Down was based on these events.
The US withdrew towards the end of 1994 without catching their worst adversary, General Farah Aideed. On their withdrawal they provided warlords opposing Aideed with arms.
"Arms poured into the country and still do, despite an international arms boycott against Somalia," says Matt Bryden of the non-governmental organisation International Crisis Group.
"An entire generation of Somalis do not know what a united Somalia means," he warns.
Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Uganda are involved in negotiations led by Kiplagat. These regional powers, known as IGAD, are all directly or indirectly concerned by the crisis.
The latest peace plan now on the table provide for a parliament consisting of 275 members, divided among the four main clans, each allocated 61 seats and a fifth group comprising smaller clans, allocated 31 seats.
Clans, sub-clans, political groupings, traditional leaders and warlords are in the process of discussing the distribution of seats - a complicated and prolonged process. Parliament will then appoint a premier, who in turn will appoint a cabinet.
No idea of democracy
Kiplagat says the process includes everyone who represents the disjointed Somali community in one way or another. "We have to include those who might want to sabotage the effort. If they are excluded we have a huge problem on our hands."
Mogadishu Centre for Dialogue co-director Jabril Ibrahim Abdulle says the possibility that peace negotiations will aggravate the conflict, cannot be ruled out.
"We are dealing with warlords who have no idea of democracy. If talks fail, they immediately close ranks. The last time it happened we were left with two thousand deaths."
Several observers believe Somaliland should be treated as a separate entity. Only when a government has been instituted in the rest of the country can negotiations over co-operation between them start.
Greater participation by the international community would be required for the transition to be successful. Currently it is not the case. "We hope it is not necessary for a disaster to happen before people take note of events in Somalia," says Abdulle.
In southern Sudan, where issues are much more clearly defined - mainly Muslims pitted against Christians - and where it is easier to identify the conflicting sides, the US is playing an important role, but not in Somalia.
US plays damaging role
Some observers say the US plays a damaging role since they provide certain warlords with arms to capture "Al Qaeda" suspects. Assistance during the transitional period is therefor more likely to come from the Middle East than from the US or Europe.
Kiplagat is confident that with the commitment of the rest of Africa the peace process must succeed sooner or later.
"Somalis are forgotten people. We weep with them, but we will be successful, with or without the money," he says. "Even if it takes ten years, we have to keep on trying. Somalia's problem is Africa's problem."