March 12, 2004
Posted to the web March 12, 2004
Kwendo Opanga
Nairobi
The grumbling that has hit the Somali peace process in Nairobi threatens to dismantle 16 months of painstaking work that have brought Somalia close to forming a national government.
But many Somali people, many scattered around the world, are still hopeful, that the third phase of the Somalia peace process in Nairobi will proceed as scheduled.
Among those who are expressing confidence that the third phase will go on and bring about a new Somalia is Mr Hussein Farah Aideed, the American educated former marine who is a son of a former Somali leader Mohammed Farah Aideed.
The phase, which should have begun in Nairobi two weeks ago, March 1 to be precise, is supposed to climax in the election of a Somali parliament and head of state in Nairobi and the formation of a government.
The government so formed is then supposed to be airlifted into Mogadishu to begin the onerous work of a comprehensive ceasefire, reconstruction, rehabilitation and re-unification of the Somali nation.
The planners of the third phase envisaged that the 366 delegates in Nairobi who comprise political leaders, elders and civil societies, would choose 275 members of Parliament.
How would they do this?
Each of the three major tribes of Somalia namely the Hariya, Darod, Dyr, Digil and Mirifle is expected to have 61 MPs.
Then there is the sixth group of minority communities that are supposed to together have 31 MPs.
The current disruption of the process revolves around who should choose the MPs. A document said to have originated from Kenya's Ministry of Foreign Affairs says this is the responsibility of political leaders.
That has angered most delegates who argue that choosing MPs should not be confined solely to political leaders. A compromise is being sought.
It is these 275 MPs who are expected to choose the president and prime ministers for the people of Somalia and together proceed to Mogadishu as a five-year transitional government. The younger Aideed seeks to be President again.
He held the position after his father's death in 1996, but he quit the following year to, in his own words, be a peace-maker and to help build bridges between Somalia's various tribes and help bring about an end to years of conflict.
The arrangement agreed in Nairobi by the Somali is supposed to usher into Somalia a new era of power-sharing through a federal government and in which the rights of the minorities are protected.
The new government will be assisted by the African Union (AU), the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) and an international force to oversee the restoration of the police and the military, end terror, secure the security of the country and restore the sovereignty of the Somali nation.
The idea is that at the end of the day, and after 13 years of hostilities and fragmentation, there will be in Mogadishu a government that is in the hands of the Somali people and not a group or a single dictator.
The AU will oversee a comprehensive ceasefire and the international community will fund an AU force that will assist the new government make it (the ceasefire) complete and permanent.
Germany, for its part, has agreed to host a constitutional commission comprising 25 to 30 Somali scholars, to help write a permanent, all-inclusive federal constitution for Somalia.
The idea here is to have the people of Somalia write their own constitution and not, as Aideed says, copy or impose a European document on the Somali.
The constitution, says Aideed, is paramount, central and crucial to peace in Somalia because if it brings about a winner-take-all situation and not a situation where all are winners, "there will be civil war again". The way Aideed understands it, the immediate role of the new government will be to build the institutions of democracy in which will be built the checks and balances against dictatorship.
The delegates gathered at the Kenya College of Communications Technology (KCCT) in Mbagathi in Nairobi are a mix of young and old which also makes for ideological differences based on generations, clans and a history of wars.
Aideed, 42, sees himself as belonging to a younger generation aspiring to lead Somalia into the new world of high technology, telecomm- unications, science and computers.
But how will he deal with older people, some from his late father's generation, who want to lead? "We are talking about consensus and we are talking about talking and listening to each other and agreeing a way forward. We are talking about forming an all-inclusive and democratic government for Somalia and not for sections of Somali people," Aideed replies.
He has his eyes set on a market economy, private sector-driven, which will only be possible if the infrastructure is rehabilitated and rebuilt so that ports and airports are brought up to international standards.
"We need to have a minimum economic progress that will bring a new Somalia back to its feet. I am here thinking about a self-sustaining and not aid-oriented economy," a thoughtful Aideed says.
That means having to deal with the legacy of the last 13 years of war which is best seen in the 2 million landmines believed to be hidden in the sands and soil of Somalia.
Thankfully, the UN has agreed to de-mine the country and Somali people have been trained in the art because they know better where to find the explosive devices.
Then there are the humans who can explode at any time and cause untold havoc to the peace process and infrastructure - the myriad armed militia in the country.
Listen to Aideed, himself a trained soldier and one who has seen the combat and tumult of his country: "You cannot ignore the militia; they are powerful; they are armed and have seen combat for between 15 and 22 years. They have got to be disarmed, demobilised and taken into the Somali national army."
Aideed, should he become president or whoever does, will have to renegotiate loans to Somalia and other assets around the world because most were frozen.
Aideed says there will have to be a new monetary system and new Somali bank notes.
But it is people who the new leadership will rely on to start to rebuild the economy. In this regard then farming, fishing and livestock will have to be revived if both farming and nomadic communities are to be incorporated into the new economy.
While livestock farming is a quick source of money for Somalia, says Aideed, the country has not exported animals for the last 15 years and they have about 45 million head of livestock.
A working nation must be one that has invested in the education of its people and one whose people are healthy but, as Aideed reports, health and education have suffered most because of wars.
"There have been no schools, 10 million young people have not been to school over the years; one million have had their education in Kenya, whole generations have not gone to school; we need education for both young and old," laments Aideed.
On health: "Huge numbers of our people and children have not been vaccinated against diseases and they are dying. We need to restore health institutions on a decentralised basis."
In this regard, he says, the future ministry of health will have to be based in the regions and not at the centre.
A large percentage of the people of Somalia are out of the country.
Aideed says there are 3.5 million Somali people in Kenya and Ethiopia and they need to return to build their country.
And those who are in and who will be moving in when there is a new government in place must be empowered, given loans to do business because "government must get out of business to make way for a powerful private sector".
Assignment
Even without moving to other sectors of the economy, this is a massive assignment for any president and or government. How equipped is a 42-year-old to deal with so many problems?
"As a marine I have the best possible training to deal with the situation in Somalia; I have survived nine attempts on my life and remember it is not easy for a black man to make it out there (US) and excel."
His education and 17 years in the US, he says, have prepared him well to explain issues to his people and plan for international relations.
The West does not understand Somalia's problem, and I believe I am well equipped to formulate a political solution to the problems that bedevil my country," declares Aideed.
But then comes the all-important question: Where will the money come from to get these programmes going?