Can Somalia ever be normal?


Monday, 6 December, 2004, 00:40 GMT

By Joseph Winter
BBC News, Mogadishu

After 13 years of clan warfare and lawlessness, Somalia once more has a government, led by a president and a prime minister.

The problem is that the capital, Mogadishu, remains too dangerous for them to work in.

President Abdullahi Yusuf is treated as a visiting head of state, enjoying red carpet treatment and tight security in Kenya, where he was elected by members of a transitional parliament.

But in Somalia, there is no police force capable of guaranteeing his security, and that of his ministers, in a country with an estimated 60,000 armed militiamen.

And sceptics abound after the failure of 13 previous attempts to set up a new government for Somalia.

Some say this time will be different because Somalis are tired of fighting, and that all of Somalia's neighbours and factions are included for the first time.

'Crazy'

One of Mr Yusuf's first acts following his election was to call for 20,000 foreign peacekeepers, who would both disarm the many militias and protect his government.

"That is a crazy idea," says one of the key Mogadishu warlords, Hussein Aideed, now an "armed MP" in the transitional parliament.

He says the presence of such a large foreign force would only unite all the different Somali factions against it.

Following the disaster of the United States intervention in 1993, which ended after Somali gunmen were filmed dragging the bodies of US troops through the streets, few western powers are willing to risk the lives of their soldiers in Somalia.

Before Mr Yusuf was elected, all the warlords pledged on the Koran to disarm their militias but in Mogadishu, there is no sign of this happening - there are just as many armed men on their checkpoints as before.

'Write cheques'

United Nations special envoy to Somalia Winston Tubman says the international community will only help if there is progress from the Somali side.

"He is the president of Somalia, he has to come up with plans, he has to say: 'This is what we want to do and we have marshalled our efforts to this extent'.

"Once they see him taking those kind of steps, the international community will follow. As opposed to if he says: 'I'm the president, write cheques for me.' It doesn't work that way."

Somalia's neighbours and donor countries have spent two years and some $10m on the peace talks which culminated in Mr Yusuf's election but they are only now turning their attention to the question of government security.

Builders or destroyers?

Diplomats are talking about using the officer corps of Somalia's last police force as the basis of a new police service, backed up by some of the militiamen, following a few weeks training.

But this remains an idea, which has not even been agreed by everyone, and so it will be some time before Mr Yusuf and his team are able to start the huge task they have taken on, of rebuilding Somalia.

The new government includes most of Somalia's main warlords, to the dismay of some.

"These are the people who have destroyed our country, how can they rebuild it?" asked one man, who did not want to be named.

But others say it is better to have them inside the process than outside.

"The cabinet will have to be a mixture of sinecures to keep the warlords happy and technocrats to do the work," said one western diplomat closely involved in the peace process.

Terror and migration

The other question is whether all these men who have been fighting each other for so many years will be able to work together.

Again, naming the warlords as ministers is intended to give them a stake in the new peace but Mr Aideed says there has still not been any reconciliation.

"This process is extremely weak. You have leaders who do not trust each other but who were pushed and pressured to form a government at all costs," he said.

Driving around Mogadishu, the scale of the job awaiting Mr Yusuf and his team, assuming they eventually get there, is obvious.

Government buildings, such as ministries, schools and colleges, have become refugee camps for people forced from their homes by years of fighting.

There are no public hospitals, camels use the runway of the main international airport to graze and business vehicles are stopped every few kilometres at a checkpoint where militiamen, invariably chewing khat, a mild stimulant, use AK-47s to extort money.

Amidst this anarchy, there are very real fears that terror groups could set up training camps - one reason why the international community has spent so much time and money on bringing peace and stability back to Somalia.

Mr Yusuf quickly pledged to move against any such groups.

Apart from humanitarian concerns, the other reason is the flow of Somali refugees to the west.

Until recently, Somalia was the country providing the highest number of asylum-seekers in the UK.

There are between one and three million Somalis living abroad.

Sick leader

Somalia's clan divisions were at the heart of the long civil war. Mr Yusuf is from the Darod clan, based in the north, whereas Mogadishu is home to their Hawiye rivals.

Furthermore, the former army colonel has a slightly brutal reputation.

But I did not meet a single person in Mogadishu who said they did not want him to be their leader.

"I just want a government, any government will do," one man told me.

The question is whether those who have been fighting to rule Somalia for so many years will be content to be mere ministers.

One of Somalia's most famous singers, Muktar "Idi" Ramadan, is not sure.

"They all still want to be president and we cannot have 15 presidents in Somalia," he said.

And Hussein Aideed implicitly agrees.

He says that one reason why Mr Yusuf was elected was because he is 70 years old and in poor health.

Fourteenth time lucky?

That raises the prospect of factional fighting breaking out again, long before the new institutions have had time to take root and ensure a smooth succession.

But Somalis are hoping that such gloomy scenarios do not materialise - and that their country can become "normal" again.

Compared to some countries destroyed by years of civil war, Somalia does have two advantages.

Some of the Somalis abroad are highly-trained and could make a big difference if they could be persuaded that it is safe to return home.

And the large business community has also promised to back the peace process, bringing their financial clout and expertise on board.

It is now up to President Yusuf, and the various warlords, backed by the international community, to make sure that this peace process is 14th time lucky for Somalia.

Published: Source: bbc.co.uk

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