Wednesday December 15, 2004
Jon Henley in Paris
President Jacques Chirac is so concerned about French hostility to Turkey joining the EU that he has taken the step of asking to be interviewed on the subject on the TF1 television news tonight.
Two days before EU leaders are expected to propose the start of formal entry talks with Ankara, Mr Chirac, facing political isolation in France, "will try to inform the public and explain what's at stake", a spokesman said.
Yesterday the Turkish prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan, said he would not hesitate to reject entry talks if "unacceptable issues" were raised.
One such might be France asking Turkey to acknowledge its genocide of Armenians in the early years of the 20th century, a highly contentious issue between the two countries.
But the French foreign minister, Michel Barnier, appeared to back away from this yesterday, despite saying on Tuesday that France might consider making this a precondition.
A survey published on Monday confirmed the public opposition to Turkish accession: 67% of those questioned, including 71% of conservative voters and 61% of leftwingers, disapproved.
That puts Mr Chirac, who has repeatedly backed Turkey's bid for accession but admitted openly in Britain last month that the question was "a real problem in France", in a very delicate position.
At home he finds himself out of step not only with the voters and many senior opposition Socialists, but also with most members of his own centre-right UMP, including its newly installed and highly ambitious leader, Nicolas Sarkozy, a probable rival in the 2007 presidential election.
Although he has promised voters the opportunity to veto Turkey's accession when the moment comes in another 10 years or so, he is worried that their fears will affect the outcome of next year's referendum on the EU constitution.
Popular rejection of the constitution would be a heavy blow to his possible quest for a third term in office.
But changing tack on Turkey to appease the public would leave him exposed in the EU, angering his allies and further diminishing French influence.
As a former prime minister, Eduard Balladur, said this week: "Europe is no longer just foreign policy. A good part of it is now domestic policy."
The reservations most commonly cited by French voters are straightforward: the risk of Turkish immigrants entering the EU job market (the most important factor for 40% of the poll's respondents), and the fact that most of Turkey's 70 million citizens are Muslims (25% of the poll).
There is also concern about Ankara's human rights record, including its refusal to recognise the Armenian genocide.
But Mr Barnier said yesterday that the genocide was "not a condition that we are setting on the opening of negotiations, like the ones that the heads of state will discuss on Thursday and Friday".
France would bring it up in the first round of talks, likely to begin next year. When the time came Turkey should face up to the need to recognise "this tragedy".
He added: "The European project itself is founded on the idea of reconciliation.
"We have 10 years to ask it; the Turks have 10 years to think about their response."
But Ankara has made it clear that there is no question of it recognising the genocide, which it denies.
The success of Mr Chirac's attempt to win over French voters, stressing less the advantages to the EU than the fact that entry talks will not automatically lead to membership, is by no means certain.
He has already angered Turkish leaders and upset his main EU partners by suggesting that the talks should be delayed until late next year, and by floating - with Austria - the idea that Brussels should hold out to Ankara a form of privileged partnership or "third way" if it fails to meet the full EU criteria.
Armenian tragedy
· Armenia accuses Turkey of genocide in the deaths of 1.5 million people between 1915 and 1923, when the Ottoman empire was breaking up. It says they were massacred or died in epidemics during their forced deportations from eastern Turkey to Syria and Mesopotamia.
· Ankara flatly denies the genocide, says the death count is exaggerated and that those Armenians who died were just some of many victims of the geo-strategic turbulence of the time.
· In 2001 the French parliament recognised the killings as genocide, sparking huge protests. A motion was tabled in the Turkish parliament accusing France of genocide during Algeria's 1955-62 war of independence.