February 25, 2004
Posted to the web February 26, 2004
Jim Fisher-Thompson
Washington, DC
Shinn cites services provided by business, need for stabilization
How will the international community characterize a country that has all the services that central and local governments routinely provide, support or regulate -- security, courts and prisons, schools, health, roads, telecommunications, foreign policy, etc. -- but lacks a functioning national government?
This was one of the underlying questions posed by retired U.S. Ambassador David Shinn in a panel discussion on "Somalis and Their Future" sponsored by the Institute of International Humanitarian Affairs at Fordham University in New York City on February 23. Former Somalia Prime Minister Abdirazak Haji Hussein also attended the event.
He also questioned whether a country can be called a 'failed state' simply because the international community is not present to declare it so and whether Africans can solve their own problems without interference from international experts and donors?
Shinn, now adjunct professor at the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, cited Somalia as a case in point. In Africa, where governments are often part of the cause and not the solution to nagging political and economic problems, Somalia is holding its own despite not having a paramount leader or even a central government, he said.
"In many respects," said Shinn, "the Somali business class has replaced political leaders and former government officials as the most important component of the economy" and the 'state.'
He explained, "The private sector provides modern telecommunications services in many parts of the country, taking a technological leap by using satellites and wireless equipment. In those areas where the electric grid, water systems and seaports operate, they are privately run. Schools in Somalia are private or supported by Islamic organizations. The language of instruction is English or Arabic. Businesspersons support the operation of sharia or Islamic courts in the absence of any governmental judicial system. Even security has become a private matter."
Shinn, who wrote his Master's thesis at George Washington University on the Pan-Somali or Greater Somalia movement, pointed out that "some 14 reconciliation conferences have attempted to bring peace and national unity to Somalia. The most recent unity effort known as the Somalia National Reconciliation Conference commenced 16 months ago in Kenya and is still underway. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) designated the government of Kenya to lead the talks. Under pressure from the international community, the participants did sign a cease fire agreement."
While these negotiations have muddled along, life in Somalia has found a way. One of the key mechanisms for maintaining the economy is the financing provided by the approximately one million Somalis living outside Somalia, many of them in North America, according to Shinn.
"The United Nations estimates that these Somalis now send back to their homeland an estimated $1 billion annually in the form of remittances," Shinn explained. "This is by far the most significant source of income for Somalia and Somaliland. In this sense, the economy in Somalia and Somaliland has become global as a direct result of the collapse of the former Somali Republic."
According to the diplomat turned scholar, "These trends have the potential to promote positive change in Somalia".
But, he added, if left unchecked, they can also channel their energy in a negative direction. "Fundamentalist groups that support or tolerate external terrorist activity are not in the interest of Somali unity and progress. Businesspersons profiting from the failed state situation may be reluctant to permit the return of a viable national government."
Overall, Shinn cautioned: "It is simply not realistic in today's world for a society to exist over an extended period of time without a national government. Although the private sector has filled some of the void, until there is a widely accepted national leadership there will never be reliable security, reconstruction of basic infrastructure and the equitable delivery of social services."
Therefore, "It is imperative that efforts continue to create some kind of national governing structure in Somalia," Shinn told his audience. "This will require help from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the international community.
"It does not mean, however, there must be a prolongation of the current talks in Kenya or a new conference in some other foreign city," Shinn said. "After fourteen tries at 'top down' conferences outside Somalia, it is time to revisit the 'building block' or 'bottom up' approach. Somaliland and Puntland, in spite of the dispute related to Puntland's claims on part of Somaliland's easternmost regions, have shown that it is possible to achieve a reasonable amount of control and stability."
The international community, on the other hand, "should make clear that it is not interested in supporting another external Somali conference. At the same time, it should provide greater support than it has in the past to local Somali administrations that demonstrate a willingness and ability to become secure and develop economically," Shinn concluded.
(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov).