Not since Neville Chamberlain returned from negotiating with Hitler in Munich on September 30, 1938 have we seen such a spectacle of deception and false hope. Trump, using his Truth Social platform, has been busy this weekend proclaiming:
An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. . . . Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.
The Iranians, however, have a different take: Trump’s claim about the Strait of Hormuz returning to its previous state is not true . According to Fars, contrary to Trump’s recent claim on the social network T ruth Social K that the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous condition and preparations are underway to sign an agreement, Fars reporter’s follow-ups show that this claim is also far from reality.
According to the latest exchanged text, if a possible agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will still be under Iran’s management. Although Iran has agreed to allow the number of passing ships to return to the pre-war level, this does not mean “free passage” to the pre-war situation in any way. Accordingly, the management of the strait, determining the route, time, manner of passage, and issuing permits will remain exclusively under the control and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, Trump’s claim in this regard is incomplete and inconsistent with reality.
It is also worth mentioning that Trump had previously announced negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program as one of the main and inseparable conditions of any agreement. However, no commitment has been made by Iran, and the nuclear issue has not been discussed at this stage.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia reportedly just floated a non-aggression pact with Iran. This comes in the wake of Saudi Arabia watching Tehran breach multiple layers of US air and naval defenses in the Strait of Hormuz in chillingly fast strikes during the first five weeks of the Ramadan war (i.e., the war that started on 28 February). According to the Financial Times, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia — that once relied on Washington’s “ironclad” (In reality a mirage) guarantees — is now quietly exploring a regional deal modeled on the old Helsinki Accords of economic cooperation, security guarantees, stability without the empire calling the shots.
If true, this marks the Saudis effectively rejecting the US as its prime protector and accepting a new security architecture that recognizes Iran as the new sheriff in a dangerous neighborhood. When your protector looks vulnerable and weakened, you start talking to the country that just proved it can deliver.
According to a Senior Pakistani diplomatic security source:
We are approaching a decisive moment. The framework largely exists. The remaining question is whether diplomacy can close the final distance before the region slips into a much wider confrontation.
Pakistan is playing a central role in this unfolding drama. Field Marshal Asim Munir has now completed a second mission to Tehran involving direct engagement with senior Iranian political, military, and clerical power structures, including individuals operating within the orbit of the Supreme Leader’s inner circle. Concurrently, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi has remained actively engaged in facilitating the day-to-day mechanics of indirect US–Iran communications and framework coordination.
Pakistan now appears to be the only country maintaining meaningful operational trust channels simultaneously with Tehran, Beijing, Doha, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Washington-linked intermediaries. Equally important is the rapidly consolidating regional opposition to renewed American military escalation. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Pakistan have reportedly all conveyed direct warnings against renewed kinetic action. Their fear is not ideological sympathy toward Tehran, but the possibility of uncontrollable regional destabilization involving Gulf infrastructure, energy systems, shipping lanes, desalination facilities, and global oil markets.
At the same time, Iran is no longer operating from the weakened military position it occupied earlier this year. Iranian missile infrastructure has been substantially reconstituted. Naval capabilities have been dispersed and hardened. Command structures have stabilized under IRGC leadership. Current assessments indicate Tehran retains approximately 70% of its missile capability and has restored operational functionality to roughly 30 of its 33 strategic missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz.
China and Russia have also quietly reinforced Iran’s resilience without openly entering the conflict. Chinese assistance reportedly includes dual-use technologies, satellite support structures, drone and missile-related components, BeiDou integration, and indirect defense assistance routed through deniable channels. Russia appears to be providing intelligence support while benefiting strategically from the broader energy shock environment created by prolonged instability.
Keep you powder dry and let’s see what Monday brings.
Here’s my chat — recorded on Thursday — with Michael Farris: I appeared with Colonel Wilkerson and Dennis Fritz on Randy Credico’s Friday broadcast of Live on the Fly : I did my first, and hopefully not my last, interview withJasim Azawi from Qatar: --- I thank you for your invaluable support by taking time to read or comment. I do not charge a subscription fee nor do I accept advertising. I want the content to be accessible to everyone interested in the issues I am discussing. However, if you wish to make a donation, please see this link .