After Occupation Somalia is juggling with state building

As most Somalis cautiously, but intensely yearn for a full withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops propping up Somalia’s weak transitional government (TFG), a newer semblance of political uproar threatens to boil over in the incessantly war-torn Horn of African nation.

The TFG, in 2008, signed a peace-pact with a moderate Islamist opposition group led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, although some Islamist groups including the powerful Al-Shabaab oppose the agreement and have promised to fight all elements of the TFG and its foreign backers, including the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeepers currently based in the capital Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab has also claimed that, if deployed, an international UN coalition peacekeeping force proposed by the United States will be fiercely fought and eventually overwhelmed.

Sheikh Sharif’s Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) group established its own security forces and these forces have already started to assume the task of securing regional administrations in several areas that the Ethiopians have begun to pull out of in the line with the stipulations of the Djibouti agreement as they vacated the entire capital.

Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 to rescue the beleaguered transitional administration and oust the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which had taken control of most of the country and started imposing a strict form of Sharia.

Al-Shabaab has remained wary of the latest strategy employed by Sheikh Sharif’s ARS group, but the spokesman of the Al-Shabaab, Sheikh Moqtar Robow, has noted that Al-Shabaab might hold talks with Sharif when the Ethiopians pull out, heightening many’s anticipation of dialogue and compromise between the two groups.

"If the enemy troops leave our country, we may perhaps have a discussion as Somalis," Sheikh Robow said.

Although he recently condemned deployments of ARS forces to several police stations in Mogadishu, Sheikh Robow hasn’t revealed his full view on the Djibouti-based ARS branch led by Sheikh Sharif.

Somalia’s Al-Shabaab group has firmly rejected the bid of the ARS faction led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to vie for standing as the country's preeminent Islamist opposition force, all the while numerous multifaceted tit-for-tat political battles rage for control of Somalia, both inside and outside its borders.

Al-Shabaab accuses the ARS of failing to meet their promise of the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia. Pointing to the terms of the Djibouti peace deal, the other ARS faction, which is based in Asmara, complains that their Djibouti-based counterpart is failing to satisfy the best interest of the Somali people by refusing to take a more hard-line stance toward Somalia archrival and chronically nosy neighbor Ethiopia.

In turn, Al-Shabaab suspect the Djibouti-based ARS faction of having one foot in the in the TFG’s wild unpopular political establishment. Now, more than ever, Somalia faces crisis, struggling again reels from extreme violence, two disastrous years of Ethiopian occupation, and by all accounts one of the worst, if not the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

"The political crisis has deepened," Somali political analyst Mohamed Du’ale told IOL.

"Some issues are not resolved. There is no conformation to end the violence in the country," he added.

The country appears to be facing a somewhat hushed political climate as of late. In late December, the tough-talking and much loathed former President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed resigned.

The Djibouti-based ARS faction hopes with the cooperation of others to lead Somalia into a new era of peace and security.

"We are ready to tell and show our brothers that we desire to lead Somalis towards peace and settled politics," said Sheikh Sharif.

A New Power Vacuum?

Analysts predict a new power vacuum in Somalia. Who will be the victor this time around and will there even be a victor at all?

Following the resignation of the Somali president, the transitional charter of the TFG has to elect a new president within a month and this is an idea driven by the current president Shiekh Aden Mohamed Nur Madobe.

Madobe wants the election to be held in Baidoa within the Somali MPs, a step which has already cast doubt on the internationally backed power sharing agreement between the TFG and the ARS. Also Somali prime minister Nor Hassan Hussein has announced that he would race for presidency.

As the Ethiopian troops vacated the Somali capital Mogadishu, there have been fears of huge power vacuum and Islamists infighting as Al-Shabab vowed to start new attacks and ARS deployed troops at bases that Ethiopians had pulled out of. The country has not had a functioning government since 1991 and few expect that a Somali force can establish order even with the help of a relatively moderate faction of Islamists who had agreed to share power in October.

While ARS rejects attacks on AMISOM, Al-Shabab considers that its target and this disagreement turn at a glance into armed confrontation between the two Islamic groups.

Some analysts told IOL that Ethiopian troops will monitor the situation of the country in months, which may cause them to return if the weak transitional government comes under close attacks by insurgents.

African Union troops are protecting the presidential palace, where Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein still clings to power, but Somali insurgents have taken up forward positions throughout the capital.

"The year of 2009 will not be very easy for Somalis, we are fearful of new fighting with a new face," says Mogadishu resident Elmi Nor.

Al-Shabab, a powerful militant group in Somalia, is not part of an agreement signed in Djibouti by the government and the major opposition group of ARS. They’ve made dramatic territorial gains in recent months.

Resolved to Continue Fighting

Somalis describe prime minister Nor Hassan Husein as the prime peace seeker official in the TFG, despite Hussein’s appeal for peace. Al-Shabab has said in recent days that Ethiopia’s departure would not stop them from fighting.

“If Ethiopian bases are removed after now, our attacks will target AMISOM,� said Sheikh Moqtar Robow, the spokesman of Al-Shabab, at a news conference in Mogadishu.

Last Sunday, five people were killed in Mogadishu after Al-Shabab group attacked Ugandan and Burundian peacekeepers at night.

As Ethiopia’s troops left the capital, there is visible power vacuum with the Islamists' scramble for emptied bases that were supposed to be taken by joint forces as agreed in Djibouti.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed the chairman of the ARS is in Mogadishu to solve this problem and improve his relation with the government.

"You can see with your eyes, after efforts made by the alliance, we’ve made possible the pull out of the Ethiopian troops. Why other bullets are being fired?" Sheikh Ahmed said at a news conference in Mogadishu on Sunday.

Today as Ethiopian troops left the country, Somalis are yet to enjoy peace. Kidnapping and killings are still rampant in the country as criminal gangs still enjoy freedom of operation in lawlessness.

"My two sons died now here; we were expecting violence would cease with Ethiopians withdrawing," weeping mother Fatima Siad said as she spoke to IOL at a location where her two sons died when a mortar hit nearby their house.

In a brazen late Saturday afternoon attack, armed men ambushed four men passing at Fagah area killing them there. Although Mogadishu now is mainly free from military check points, freedom of movement is still limited because of lawlessness.

Mission Accomplished?

"The decision to pull our troops out of Somalia indicates that we’ve successfully ended our mission in Somalia," said Ethiopian Commander in Somalia Gabre Yohannes Abate.

The resigned president Abdullahi Yusuf was the forerunner of attacks against Islamists and he had little diplomatic leadership experience according to analysts, but the wars and the controversies, as well as corruption scandals of his officials was the main source of his unpopularity.

With Somalia’s insurgency in the latest of second year, at a cost of more than 4,000 Somali and thousands of injuries, Somalis are anticipating no more than restoration of peace by Sheikh Sharif and prime minister Nor Hassan Hussein.

“May Allah make us this 2009 year peace and prosperous for Somalia,� said Halima Abdi, 80, who lives in a makeshift hut outside Mogadishu.

"We used to live in fine-looking houses in Mogadishu, but we are now under decrepit huts; we need peace to return to our homes," said Sadiya Abdi, 31, a mother of four children who lives in Elasha biyaha, an area outside Mogadishu for Internally Displaced People.

Abdinasir Mohamed Guled is journalist and writer based in Mogadishu, Somalia.

Somalia | Politics | |